UNP, from the Party of the Minorities to a Minor Party
Analysis is paralysis
Analysis is paralysis. If one attempts to over analyze the just concluded local government elections, one would miss the obvious point. Out of twenty three local bodies of which seventeen were for municipal councils and urban councils, where traditionally the UNP has been strongest since Independence, only Colombo has been secured by the United National Party(UNP). Even after the 1956 debacle the UNP managed to wrest power in
A leadership that is constantly conscious of the turns and twists of government affairs is the need of the hour. In this sphere, in the writer’s view Ranil Wickramasinghe has failed and failed miserably. But getting rid of Ranil is not going to solve all the problems of the UNP, yet it remains a prerequisite for the Party if it wishes to go forward. Removing Ranil does not necessarily mean the total ouster of Wickramasinghe from the Party and asking him to retire. He might be asked to remain as a Senior/Consultant leader but certainly not at the switch where he was found asleep more often than not.
Colombo, making Colombo, the commercial capital of the Island, almost impossible for any other single party or an anti-UNP coalition to win.
Tamil voter breaking away from UNP
It was in 2010 that the Colombo voter last had an opportunity to exercise his universal franchise. In that 2010 Parliamentary Election the results were as follows: UNP – 59%, UPFA – 32%, JVP – 8%. This time it was UNP – 43%, UPFA – 32% and JVP – 1% and DPF (Mano Ganeshan) – 11%, SLMC – 4%. Just over a year later the UNP has reduced by 16% with the UPFA barely maintaining its percentage. This seems to have happened as a result of the minority voter, especially the Tamil voter, breaking away from the UNP and voting along communal lines. That 16% that the Party lost has gone to Mano Ganeshan and the SLMC. The sad side of this is that the United National Party is losing its minority base. The Tamil voter does not seem to trust the UNP any more. The majority the Party enjoyed in the Parliamentary elections in 2010 which was sixty thousand has come down to twenty four thousand-not a happy trend. In one more election cycle, if the UNP does not offer any change- not only in leadership, but also in its policies, strategy and attractive candidates- the Colombo Municipal Council too will end up in the UPFA fold.
Losing the village and the metropolis
The bottom-line is that the UNP has lost the hinterland of the country as well as the metropolis. The UNP strongholds are no more, period. The biggest disappointments were Nuwara Eliya and Kandy. The hill country bastions that were nurtured by E L Senanayake and Gamini Dissanayake have been lost; Nuwara Eliya since 1970 and Kandy since eons ago. Sajith Premadasa fought a valiant battle in Hambantota UC and came up short, Hambantota being amongst the best losers, next to Nuwara Eliya and Kolonnawa. Sajith tried to beard the lion in his own den but failed.
Why should anyone vote for the UNP?
How did this happen? The answer is simple. I’ll answer that with another question: Why should anyone vote for the UNP? Its leadership crisis is eating into the very core of the Party; there was not a single occasion on which Ranil, Karu and Sajith appeared on the same platform, there was no central message conveyed to the voter, lack of funds, the UNP must have been outspent by 150 to 1, the pathetic approach to the selection of the candidates, lack of scientific campaign management on modern lines.
Retail politics
Engaging in retail politics instead of taking a strategic stance on issues and policies has cost the United National Party ever since the demise of Premadasa, Gamini and Lalith. The absence of a charismatic leader at the helm in crisis has contributed to the glaring dearth of new voters. The post-Premadasa/Gamini/Lalith UNP has shown us how not to run election campaigns, from the nomination process leading up to the counting of votes. Political campaigning is left to rank amateurs. Disunity in the Party has led it to total disarray, amounting to the candidates fighting to secure their chunks of vote banks baring open the ill-effects of the proportional representation system. In Kalmunai, the United National Party which once was the pride of the eastern Muslims received just less than ten percent of the total poll. The Party that was the refuge of the minorities has ended up becoming something less than a minor Party. D S Senanayake must be turning in his grave.
Political craft of Muzammil will be tested
But there is a silver lining in all this, for the Party may have reached the bottom of the pit. Now there is only one way to go: up! It sounds so simplistic,
The Colombo Municipal Council election results show that the UNP has 24 members whilst the opposing parties have 29 including the single JVP member. The central government can create havoc in the administration of the Council if they chose to offer a carrot to Mano Ganeshan and the SLMC and sabotage its affairs. The political and administrative craft of Muzammil will be tested to the hilt.
yet might be true. Is the Party capable of rejuvenating its spirits, regrouping its rank and file and presenting itself as a viable alternative to the Rajapaksa juggernaut? But Rajapaksa still holds a trump card. The Colombo Municipal Council election results show that the UNP has 24 members whilst the opposing parties have 29 including the single JVP member. The central government can create havoc in the administration of the Council if they chose to offer a carrot to Mano Ganeshan and the SLMC and sabotage its affairs. The political and administrative craft of Muzammil will be tested to the hilt. Yet Ranil Wickramasinghe can offer something positive to Mano G and take him to the governing fold of the Minicipality-as Deputy Mayor- in order to ensure the uninterrupted management of the commercial capital of Sri Lanka.
The ball in Ranil’s court
The ball is in Ranil’s court. The violence that erupted on the election day just before the closing time n Mulleriyawa not only signaled the oncoming pattern of politics, but also the extent to which the government machinery has failed in maintaining law and order in the country. This type of activity favours only one unfortunate set of circumstances, which budding dictators who advocate drastic measures against civil opposition want to happen. The breakdown in civil discipline and law and order favours those who profess stricter and draconian measures against such breakdowns. They will appear as saviors of society; as disciplined masters of governance, as true “patriots”. Marcos of the Philippines, Qaddafi of Libya, Suharto of Indonesia, the Military leadership in Myanmar and the Ayatollahs of Iran are post-World War examples. The UNP needs a mind that understands such phenomena and a body that can put together a strategic plan into action, not to save the Party, but to save the country. In this context it is well worth remembering what Plato once said: “Dictatorship naturally arises out of democracy and the most aggravated form of tyranny and slavery out of the most extreme liberty”.
You can’t make an omelet without breaking eggs
A leadership that is constantly conscious of the turns and twists of government affairs is the need of the hour. In this sphere, in the writer’s view Ranil Wickramasinghe has failed and failed miserably. But getting rid of Ranil is not going to solve all the problems of the UNP, yet it remains a prerequisite for the Party if it wishes to go forward. Removing Ranil does not necessarily mean the total ouster of Wickramasinghe from the Party and asking him to retire. He might be asked to remain as a Senior/Consultant leader but certainly not at the switch where he was found asleep more often than not. The day to day decisions must be left to a new leader with a new vision and with fresh ideas, a leader who appeals to the majority of the masses-Sinhalese Buddhists. It needs a leader who still enjoys the confidence of the minorities and especially the Western democracies. It needs a leader whose requests for party funds will not go unheeded. It needs a leader who can attract a whole lot of educated youngsters into the Party ranks. Does it have one like that? You cannot find him or her without asking Ranil to go. To make an omelet one must break the egg. If you choose not to break the egg, you will never know the taste of the omelet.
