Does West Want To Prise Russia And Iran Apart?

Russia Overlord of Syria:

• The war commenced six years ago when Syrians – particularly youth – staged an Arab Spring in the hope of throwing out Bashar-al-Assad
• Putin appears to be the overlord of Syria drawing up plans for its future
• Meanwhile, millions of hapless Syrians freezing in the snows are longing for peace 

An un-estimated number – tens of thousands of Syrians have perished – and half the country’s population (22 million when the conflict began) is refugees: 6.3 million internally displaced and 4.8 million displaced outside the country. A great proportion of them are living in makeshift camps freezing in the snows of the countries they have fled to or without a roof over their heads.

The UN envoy, before holding talks in Geneva with a Syrian government delegation and Opposition groups opposing the Bashar-al-Assad regime, while not having ‘excessive expectations’ hoped to keep the ‘momentum’ going with neither party trying to disrupt by provoking the other side, reports from Geneva said.

 

Dictatorship

The war commenced six years ago when Syrians – particularly youth – staged an Arab Spring in the hope of throwing out Bashar-al-Assad who had continued with the dictatorship of his father Hafez al Assad. The father had ruled for 29 continuous years and son for 11 years till peaceful attempts commenced to throw him out.

 

The geopolitics of the war had changed drastically since last year the UN with de Mistura commenced peace talks. At that time Russia had commenced its intervention and there were hopes that Russia may influence Assad to adopt a less intransigent position to reach agreement.

The Barack Obama administration that was backing the Syrian rebel groups – though half-heartedly – was insisting on regime change: ‘Assad must go’ was the US demand but the Assad government remained intransigent as ever. Fragile ceasefires reached collapsed and two sessions of UN talks at Geneva failed.

 

Enter Putin

Russia under Putin had other ideas than persuading Assad to be more flexible with the Free Syrian Groups. He backed Assad to the hilt and instead of attacking ISIS camps with his Air Force which he was supposed to do, attacked pro-Western anti-Assad camps.

Russian intervention changed the situation drastically. Soviet Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was quoted recently saying: ‘At the time of Russia coming into Syria the Assad regime was expected to last no more than three weeks’. With the Obama government being reluctant to back anti-Assad groups with required armaments – for the fear of arms being seized – Al Quaeda groups which were dominant in anti-Assad forces – Putin saw an open field before him and together with Syrian government forces blasted opposition groups. Eastern Aleppo was a bastion or the anti-rebel groups which the Assad and Russian Air Forces blasted with savagery not witnessed in recent times. With the fall of Aleppo with the assistance of Iranian ‘volunteers’ on the ground, Assad who was reeling under opposition assaults, is now speaking of occupying ‘every inch’ of Syria.

 

Whither Syria

With US support for anti-Assad forces drying up after the emergence of the enigmatic Donald Trump and with Syrian opposition groups still defiant but confined to ineffectual pockets, Putin appears to be the overlord of Syria drawing up plans for its future.

Many possibilities for future Syria are being speculated. One is that with America showing no desire to be involved in the Syrian imbroglio, Russians along with Assad’s two other allies, Iran and now Turkey, will stand back and let Assad once again regain Syria. But Assad, though he has won militarily, is diplomatically isolated and will need Russia as its guide and philosopher. Russia also can take on ISIS which is the official reason for the Russian presence. But there are other allies of Syria – Iran and Turkey both of whom committed ground forces to fight in Syria.

Assad belonging to the Alawite faith is not regarded as one of them by the Sunni Muslim world that surrounds Syria.

Shite Iran is its only ally in the region with Sunni Muslim countries – Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States – though a part of the anti- ISIS coalition of countries are alleged to be secretly funding ISIS. How will Israel and Donald Trump, both of whom have a pathological dislike to Iran, view a Syrian-Iran nexus? Will the United States and European nations wash their hands off Syria and give Russia control thereby giving over a great part of the Middle East over whose dominance much has been expended in terms of human lives and money?

 

Prising apart Russia and Syria?

Some Western journalists who covered the recent talks on Syria held in Astana in Kazakhstan by Russia, Iran, Turkey and Syria have reported that Russia and Syria are not seeing eye to eye to certain important issues such as some anti-Assad rebel groups and are questioning whether the Syrian-Russian alliance is showing strains.

A report in Britain’s Guardian in Thursday will be of much interest in this context.

‘Boris Johnson, UK Foreign Secretary has told MPs on Tuesday that the United States was considering a policy in which Russians and Iranians are separated in their own interests and we move towards a political solution and a transition away from the barbarism of the Assad regime’.

Prising apart Russia from Iran will be a part of new Great Power Game which many not bear fruition even in the distant future. Meanwhile millions of hapless Syrians freezing in the snows are longing for peace. When would there be peace for them?

A realistic assessment for peace in Syria was made last week by the new UN Secretary General Antonio Gueterres: ‘Peace is only possible when none of the parties to the conflict think they can win’.