Political Sentimeter: 10 things we learned about Toronto

Men in Toronto are more likely than women to believe that marriage is still an important institution. The city’s youth are significantly more politically radical than their elders. The Danforth and Davenport neighbourhoods are the city’s most left-leaning, while the most right-leaning are all in Etobicoke. And the most prevalent ideology in Toronto is Social Democratic Left.

Political scientists at Vox Pop Labs have arrived at a detailed picture of Toronto’s political landscape — including some surprising results — after nearly 60,000 Torontonians offered their perspectives on a wide range of issues in a 15-minute scientific survey on thestar.com.

The Political Sentimeter, launched by the Star in November and created by Vox Pop Labs, identified eight ideological types in Toronto, ranging from the Post-Materialist Left to the Steadfast Right. The tool poses a series of provocative values questions and then assigns respondents to the ideological group that best represents them.

The data collected has enabled political scientists to analyze the city’s ideological makeup in new ways, exposing both cleavages and commonalities along geographic, age, gender and other demographic lines. The conclusion: Torontonians have more in common than we may think.

“The most striking point we saw was . . . we are actually not as divided as we are told we are,” says Clifton van der Linden, founder of Toronto-based Vox Pop Labs. “There are extreme groups on both sides of the spectrum, but most of us fall somewhere in the middle, and most of the groups overlap each other in at least some aspect of their ideological perspective.

“I don’t want to paint this picture that we are a homogenous, like-minded group of people or that harmony is achieved by homogeneity. What I’m saying is that we can find points of common values and common interests at least as often as we can find points of difference.”

The data confirmed the existence of a political divide between downtown and the suburbs, with more left-leaning wards in the downtown core and more right-leaning wards in the suburbs (although each of the eight ideological types was represented in every ward). More surprising, however, were the contrasts in perspective between men and women.

“The gender differences in the city of Toronto are at times stark,” van der Linden says. Men and women were most polarized on issues of marriage, unions and gender, with men generally taking the more conservative positions.

In terms of age, 18- to 29-year-olds, a subset of the millennial generation, held views that set them apart from other age groups. They are more radical and substantially more supportive of multiculturalism than are older residents.

“It may be a generational effect, with young people being more open to change and less risk averse,” says van der Linden. “Or it may have something to do with coming of age in the 21st century.”

The political scientists at Vox Pop Labs were encouraged by the willingness of so many Torontonians to take the 15 minutes to respond to the Sentimeter’s challenging questions.

“I think 60,000 people engaging in this conversation is a very positive sign,” says van der Linden.

“There’s a political culture in Toronto by which we exaggerate our differences in a way that’s become increasingly polarizing, and it stifles honest dialogue. A better understanding of the perspectives of Torontonians helps us move beyond our bitter, divisive politics and start a conversation that engages meaningfully with people’s views on the issues that matter to them.”

Here are 10 interesting things we learned from the Political Sentimeter:

1. Younger citizens are more radical and less nationalistic than older citizens.

2. Both the oldest and the youngest citizens are more supportive of labour unions, wealth distribution policies and multicultural ideals than are middle-aged citizens.

3. On some social issues, there is a strong divide between downtown and suburban residents. The largest suburban-urban cleavage is on traditional family values and gender issues, with suburban citizens being much more conservative. For example, suburbanites are much more likely to agree that the traditional family unit is central to a well-functioning society, whereas opinion is mixed among urban Torontonians. A larger proportion of married couples with children in the suburbs might explain some of this variation.

4. Men are more likely than women to believe that marriage is not an outdated institution and much more likely to believe that traditional family structures are central to a well-functioning society.

5. Women are overwhelmingly more likely than men to believe that feminism is still relevant and that women who dress provocatively are not responsible for unwanted attention. The gender gap on these issues remains.

6. Women and men are polarized on issues of wealth distribution, the relevance of unions, the environment and multiculturalism. On all of these issues, women consistently take more progressive positions than men.

7. Christians and anglophones in Toronto are more individualistic than their non-Christian or non-anglophone counterparts.

8. The Danforth and Davenport neighbourhoods are the most left-leaning, while the most right-leaning wards are all in Etobicoke. Rob Ford’s ward is the eighth most conservative, while wards in Scarborough and North York are generally centrist.

9. While the ideological profile of Toronto’s wards is relatively consistent with voting behaviour in the recent mayoral election, there are notable exceptions.

Mayor John Tory, who is generally seen as a right-leaning centrist, had the highest vote share in two of the most left-leaning wards: Toronto-Danforth and Beaches-East York. Doug Ford, a right-winger, received the highest vote share in two wards that are notably left-leaning, Scarborough East and Scarborough-Agincourt. Finally, of the three wards where Olivia Chow had the highest vote share, two are not especially left-leaning and one is further to the right than three of the wards Ford won.

10. Social Democratic Left is the most common ideological type in Toronto, with 25 per cent of residents falling into this category. This is a non-radical group characterized by a belief in the power of government to address inequality and injustice. They are concentrated in the downtown core.

The second-most common type is Faith and Family Right, the most moderate of the right-leaning groups, which comprised 21 per cent of the city’s population. The highest concentrations of these Torontonians are in York and Scarborough. Laissez-faire Left, a socially progressive, fiscally conservative group that is spread across the city, follows with 18 per cent of Torontonians. The Heritage Right, a traditionally conservative, nationalistic group concentrated in Scarborough, is the next most common with 15 per cent.

Try the Political Sentimeter and find out where you fall among Toronto’s eight ideology groups. Visit Political Sentimeter.