East-West tensions heighten and take on new dimensions

For the international community, these ought to be particularly anxious times. Not only are East-West polarities widening; they are taking on new military dimensions that could render the world an increasingly dangerous place to live in, unless contained swiftly.

In Eastern Europe, for example, things could only get worse. The Russian ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine could prove progressively brutal in the wake of the killing in Russia of Darya Dugina, daughter of hard core Russian nationalist and ardent Putin supporter Alexander Dugin, recently.

The killing occurred on the eve of Ukraine’s Independence Day which fell yesterday. The Russian authorities suspect Ukraine to be behind the killing, which the latter has denied. The Putin regime was expected to react with increased ruthlessness in Ukraine to the killing. The civilian populace in Ukraine in particular would need to brace for stepped-up and more brutal onslaughts on them by the Russian military which is apparently stalled in eastern Ukraine although there are no signs that the invasion is in any way being scaled down.

Meanwhile, China and Russia are showing a growing appetite for joint military exercises and drills. The latest of such exercises titled ‘Vostok’ (East) is to be held from August 30 to September 5 in Russia and is expected by Beijing to take the relations between the powers ‘to a higher level’. Among the countries that are expected to join the exercise are: India, Belarus, Mongolia and Tajikistan. It is plain to see that with the exception of India, the rest of the participating countries are mainly in the Russian and Chinese spheres of influence.

Simultaneously almost, the US and South Korea are reportedly gearing to ‘hold their largest military exercise in years’. While Chinese-inspired military developments in the Taiwan Strait in particular and East Asia in general could be seen as necessitating a stronger than ever firming of the alliance between the US and South Korea, the perceived military threats from North Korea to South Korea would also need to be factored in as prompting a pronounced projecting of joint military muscle between the US and its ally in the Korean peninsula.

As matters stand, South Korea is no military underdog in the Eastern theatre. Over the years it has developed into a foremost weapons manufacturer and is second to none in this respect among the powers that count. For instance, Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) is reputed to be one of the world’s biggest arms manufacturers. Recently it signed an arms supply deal with Poland to the tune of $ 14.5 billion; reportedly one of the most notable of such transactions for South Korea’s defense industry.

Meanwhile, reports indicate that arms supply contracts have also been entered into by South Korea’s defense industry with the Philippines, Indonesia, Iraq and Thailand. The industry was said to have been expecting orders of the same kind from Colombia, Malaysia, India, Turkey, Norway, Estonia and Finland.

In an interesting turn of events, South Korea is said to be supplying humanitarian assistance and non-lethal military hardware to Ukraine. It is on record as having condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and has underlined the fact that the invasion is a violation of the fundamental principles of the UN Charter.

We have proof here that South Korea is closing ranks with the West on the Ukraine crisis. Given its growing military clout, it could be said that South Korea is a notable power to contend with in the East-West conflict and has emerged as a strong ally of the West. Currently, it is a key state in the US-led Defense Dialogue which is featuring strongly in Western efforts to bolster Ukraine’s defenses. That is, its influence is extending well beyond the eastern theatre.

While we have in these developments a bourgeoning of global arms spending, amid widening worldwide political polarities, there is yet to be a serious accounts-taking of what these proclivities could mean for ordinary people everywhere. Increasing arms spending by governments could mean leaner social welfare budgets and linked expenditure.

Except for the poorest of states, most countries would find themselves being lured into the self-defeating exercise of increasing arms expenditure for what is made out to be national security purposes at the expense of social welfare. The final result would invariably be precipitous impoverishment of publics accompanied by social and political instabilities.

A recent report by the World Federation of Exchanges (WFE) was unambiguous on the point that the wealth of countries could very well be on a diminishing trajectory. The WFE reported, among other things, that the first half of 2022 saw a sharp shrinking of share market capitalization the world over by 15%, compared to the previous six months. This amounts to $ 18 trillion. The report adds that the number of IPOs fell by 52% globally over the same period and the capital realized by IPOs fell by 62% for the same time span. The Ukraine war is singled out as a key factor in this economic debacle.

While authoritarian states, such as China and Russia, would be hoping to ward off increasing political and social instability stemming from shrinking welfare spending and crumbling national wealth by resorting to strong law and order measures or increasing repression, democracies are likely to face stiff governance dilemmas that would prove difficult to resolve in the short and medium terms.

For instance, Western governments cannot hope to manage social unrest of the ‘Arab Spring’ kind by having recourse to anti-democratic, tough law and order measures, considering that these countries possess some democratic credentials and are exceptionally accountable to their publics. On the other hand, if governments claiming to be democratic remain inactive in the face of public unrest they could very well be courting implosive and unmanageable political and social violence.

While most eyes are likely to be on the UN for the relevant expertise and mechanisms to ward off gathering, worldwide social and political unrest, through substantial interventions to curb the world arms race, this could very well be wishful thinking because the UN has its arms tied as a result of the endemic big power struggles within its prime organs. Bold, creative thinking on the part of the international community is called for.