Politics after the protests
By N Sathiya Moorthy
Now that there is some kind of a political stability (?), post-Aragalaya protests, it may be time to revisit the immediate past and learn lessons for the future, wherever possible. The reasons are not far to seek, if one went by the conduct of political parties and their leaders in terms of their willingness to take risks, run a government beset with problems of every kind, and also hope to win the next round of elections – comprising the presidential polls in 2024, those for Parliament a year later, and for the nine Provincial Councils and numerous local government bodies, any time in between or afterwards.
The question has assumed sudden relevance after a period of lull after two-term President and one-time Prime Minister, whom the protestors forced to quit, is back in circulation. A never-say-die leader, Mahinda used to be the single-most popular leader in the country, with a consistent vote-share of above 40 per cent through the two previous decades until the Aragalaya felled him. In Elections-2019, he also proved that his votes were ‘transferrable’, even to younger brother Gotabaya, who became President on this count.
Today, after lying low for months – the rarest thing for a politician of Mahinda’s reach, out-reach and calibre, he has returned by addressing his SLPP cadres. He has also received foreign diplomats / dignitaries. For now, it comprises Chinese envoy Qi Zhenhong and the forgotten Norwegian peace envoy, Eric Solheim, this time wearing the hat of environmental consultant for the government of President Ranil Wickremesinghe.
Come 18 November, and Mahinda will be turning 77. Considering that the presidential and parliamentary polls are the most important in the nation’s poll calendar, he would be touching 80 by then. Granting that he is still in the best of health, the younger generation voters would still find it difficult to relate to him, hence accept him.
The aura of ‘war victor’ was lost with his electoral defeat in 2015, but voters stayed with him and his party, whether the parent SLFP or the breakaway SLPP, because of the successive failures of his rivals, then in power. He cannot expect to be twice lucky. This time round, as he and his party as the official under-writers of the Wickremesinghe dispensation cannot escape the political responsibility for the multiple failures of the government that stare at the leadership and also the nation as a whole.
Achilles’ Heel
If perchance Wickremesinghe succeeds, even half as much as the nation needs, then those successes would be his, not those of the Rajapaksas. If anything, the general mood then would be to lament why the nation did not work out a ‘deal’ with Wickremesinghe in the past. Or, why did Ranil and Mahinda do it this way in the past, even in 2019, when Gota became the Achilles’ Heel of them all and also the nation as a whole.
Ranil too is not growing younger. He would be 75 at the time of next elections. In his case, the question would not be his age or health. Instead, it would be the question of the relevance of his time-tested ways for the badly-needed economic recovery and also political stability under the changed circumstances. What he is attempting/doing now is only a quick-fix job, where he has succeeded. But stabilising and taking the economy forward requires different administrative and political skills. Is he up to it?
The question also arises if the West is on Wickremesinghe’s back at the IMF and the UNHRC – economy and politics – would ease the situation if and only if he off-loads the Rajapaksas. They did once for him when he was Prime Minister for and under President Maithripala Sirisena (2015-19). The Rajapaksas were the marked adversaries of that government.
Today, Wickremesinghe depends entirely on the Rajapaksas for his presidential survival and parliamentary support. The West has refused to play ball at the UNHRC. They have not done anything to help the nation at the IMF. Nor has any of them come up with substantial aid as neighbouring India (alone) has done, nor has any of them shown enthusiasm for Ranil’s forgotten proposal for an aid consortium, which is lumbering at best.
This raises the question if Wickremesinghe would be tempted to cross swords with the Rajapaksas, especially if Mahinda is unable or unwilling to tame the rest of the clan, especially another younger brother Basil, who still seems to be wanting all rights and powers, but no responsibility or accountability. Such a course, if it came to that, could imply that Wickremesinghe would want to recreate his past image as a big-time leader, possibly by splitting the SJB that broke away from his UNP, and also the SLPP, that too after ensuring support from the political parties representing the three minority communities, namely, the Sri Lankan Tamils, Muslims and Upcountry Tamils.
Missed opportunity
That triggers the question if the SJB Opposition and its leader, Sajith Premadasa, missed the bus and also have no clue to decide, where to go and how to reach there. They missed the opportunity when a boxed Gota, as President, invited Premadasa to become Prime Minister after the Aragalaya protestors had forced incumbent Mahinda to quit.
The SJB and its leadership as a whole seemed to have concluded that Gota would remain and they would find it difficult to carry on the business of governance if they accepted the prime ministership. Of course, they also did not have the numbers in Parliament, but with clarity of thought and direction of purpose, they could have made it.
If nothing else, if Gota invited them to form the government as President, it was his government that they were forming and bolstering. It would have also been for him to ensure the numbers – by talking elder brother Mahinda, who in those circumstances, might have helped. Or, at least he would have been forced to come out and expose himself more than already.
Did Premadasa’s Hambantota district politics, where the Rajapaksas are also based, shut his eyes to political realities and possibilities of those times? As head of the undivided UNP, Wickremesinghe was more critical of the Rajapaksas and their united SLFP of the time. His differences with both were as much ideological as personal – rather, more ideological than personal.
So, when Premadasa turned down Gota’s offer in public, Wickremesinghe readily jumped at the opportunity, obviously after considering the possibilities. Today, the SJB leadership is spending sleepless nights, not knowing if and when Wickremesinghe would split the party – whether to bolster his strength vis a vis the mainstay SLPP under-writer, or to strengthen the alliance as a whole, considering that Mahinda has lost a substantial share of his committed vote-share, or seemingly so post-Aragalaya protests.
Having the cake and eating…
The question is if continued hatred for the Rajapaksas, even if sustainable, will ensure a sweeping victory for the SJB alliance in future elections, whenever held and for whatever constitutional body. Or, will some of it have been erased, possibly out of choice and probably because of the ‘relatively good work’ (?) done by the Ranil government and the SLPP not putting spokes in the administration’s wheel, as is being anticipated, day in and day out.
From within the SLPP, which is still the majority party in Parliament (if not outside?), Namal Rajapaksa was being seen as the rising star. In between, and even now, Basil’s name keeps cropping up whenever the party has to take decisions or is caught in a controversy, even in this post-Aragalaya phase.
The question is if the two could and would work together, and if the voters, going beyond loyal cadres but including those whose votes the clan might have lost post-Aragalaya, would accept either or both. It boils down to the question if Mahinda has ‘transferrable votes’, for either or both – if so, who would be his preference and that of the party.
Namal may be ready, and may also be willing – but do the voters put him on the same pedestal, not alongside father Mahinda, but aspiring Opposition leaders, starting with SJB’s Sajith Premadasa? Whatever that be, will a Rajapaksa be willing to play second fiddle to incumbent Wickremesinghe in the next elections, if the other is ready to go out as a team, even if it is for a transitional period, when they could hope to reclaim the lost credibility.
Basil, who is put at a much higher pedestal, may have lost out already, as he seems wanting to have the cake and eat it too. Already, Mahinda & Co burnt their fingers by amending the Constitution, to accommodate ‘dual citizens’ in elected/ministerial positions. Today, Wickremesinghe may not want to risk it, and the Rajapaksas, even if the Mahinda-Namal duo has no objection, cannot press it.
Then, there is the SJB, which is yet to believe in itself and believe that it is the party-in-waiting. It is not enough that the Rajapaksas are – or, maybe – down and out. It is also necessary for the SJB and Sajith to ensure that someone else does not upstage them to fill the politico-electoral vacuum thus created. The JVP and the FSP, jointly or severally are the other visible candidates, but whether Aragalaya-time popularity of both, and its leadership(s), will continue to hold the charm in election time is yet another million-dollar question – with the result, politics in the post-Aragalaya season is still in a flux, as much as the economy!
(The writer is a policy analyst & commentator, based in Chennai, India. Email: sathiyam54@nsathiyamoorthy.com)
