India-China border skirmish signals volatile ‘new normal’

The latest clash between Indian and Chinese troops along their disputed Himalayan border underscores the precarious nature of efforts to de-escalate tensions between the nuclear-armed Asian giants, analysts say, warning of the danger of more flare-ups.

“This is the new normal along the LAC,” said Harsh V. Pant, vice president at the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation think tank, referring to the de facto border known as the Line of Actual Control.

Troops from the two sides faced off last Friday in Tawang, in India’s northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh, which China claims as part of Tibet despite strong objections from New Delhi. It was the first known major clash along the 3,500-kilometer LAC since hand-to-hand combat erupted in mid-2020 in the Galwan Valley in eastern Ladakh. That confrontation left 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers dead, making it the first deadly battle between the neighbors in 45 years. They had fought a war in 1962 over the undemarcated boundary.

This time, soldiers on both sides suffered minor injuries, according to India. The hostilities erupted just months after the countries pulled back from another border friction point, ostensibly easing tensions.

On what could have triggered last week’s fight, Pant, who is also a professor at King’s College London, suggested that there were various factors but that “ultimately this is about China testing India along the entire boundary at multiple places.”

He said Beijing is “probing India’s defenses and weaknesses and learning some lessons for its own strategy.”

Recent U.S.-India military exercises near the LAC also “would have been in their minds,” he said.

After the 2020 Galwan clash, the Sino-Indian border “has become volatile because not only is China pushing [India] but India is also giving back … which is something China is not used to,” Pant said. “I think the Indians and Chinese will have to learn to live with [it] because this is not going to change anytime soon. We are now going to see a much more turbulent, much more volatile, much more active LAC.”

Asked about the confrontation, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin told a press briefing that the China-India border areas are generally stable. “The two sides have maintained smooth communication on boundary-related issues through diplomatic and military channels,” he said, avoiding a question on the injuries.

“We hope that the Indian side will work with us in the same direction, earnestly deliver on the important common understandings reached by leaders of both sides, and act strictly in the spirit of relevant bilateral agreements signed by both sides and jointly preserve peace and tranquility in the border areas.”

The Indian government maintains that so long as the border issue is not resolved, the relationship with China cannot be normal. In a statement to parliament on Tuesday, Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said Chinese People’s Liberation Army troops “tried to transgress the LAC in Yangtse area of Tawang Sector and unilaterally change the status quo.”

This led to a scuffle that forced PLA troops to return to their posts, he said, adding that “a few personnel” were injured on both sides.

At a flag meeting of local commanders from the two sides on Sunday, China was asked to refrain from such actions, Singh said, noting that New Delhi was handling the matter through diplomatic channels. “Our forces are committed to protecting our territorial integrity and will continue to thwart any attempt made on it.”

Indian Home Minister Amit Shah lauded Indian soldiers for their bravery. “Not even one inch of India’s land can be captured” while the Bharatiya Janata Party government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in power, he told reporters.

Other analysts say there has been a shift in India’s approach in recent years.

According to Srikanth Kondapalli, professor of Chinese studies at New Delhi-based Jawaharlal Nehru University, India has been complacent about border management since the 1950s. “But now we are waking up,” he said.

Kondapalli pointed to India’s infrastructure development in the border areas. Modi on Nov. 19 visited Arunachal Pradesh, where he inaugurated an airport and a hydroelectric project. More roads are also under construction. The government has announced a plan costing 440 billion rupees ($5.3 billion) to connect eastern Arunachal Pradesh with the western part of the state by constructing three highways.

The professor said there has been some “clear signaling” from Beijing “to the PLA that they need to do something in this regard.” He said Chinese President Xi Jinping last year visited Tibet’s Nyingchi prefecture, which is close to Arunachal Pradesh, and had earlier written a rare letter to two sisters in the autonomous region’s Yumai village highlighting the need to protect the border.

The Chinese Communist Party’s national congress in October also emphasized sovereignty and territorial integrity, he noted.

Kondapalli observed that China too is spending billions of dollars on infrastructure near the border areas. “If you go up to [an elevation of] 17,000 feet in the place where the [latest] skirmish has taken place, you can have the bird’s-eye view of the whole region, including Tawang, which is an area they covet very much,” he said.

Kondapalli did say that China has “a tendency to de-escalate if you show them your teeth” but added that considering the buildups on both sides, clashes could happen anywhere, as the atmosphere is “quite threatening” for both.

The skirmish in Tawang “is indicative of a complete breakdown of trust between the two sides in the aftermath” of the conflict in Ladakh, according to N.C. Bipindra, a defense and strategic affairs expert who is editor of the Defence.Capital news portal.

Stability, he stressed, hinges on the boundary question itself. “The demarcation of the border and both sides ratifying the border in an agreement is the only hope for peace between India and China,” Bipindra said. (Asia Nikkei)