Biden’s economic diplomacy push with China is high risk, low reward
At an April 6 meeting of Biden’s top national security officials, known as the principals committee, several argued in favor of economic engagement with Beijing. The following week, two senior Commerce Department officials visited Beijing and Shanghai, in part to feel out a possible trip by Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo this year.
Then, last week, in a speech on China at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen reiterated her desire to travel to Beijing “at the appropriate time.” She hopes to establish substantive dialogue to “lay the groundwork for responsibly managing our bilateral relationship,” she said.
But it would be a huge concession to the Chinese government — and would represent a de facto shift in U.S. strategy — if either Yellen or Raimondo were to go to Beijing before Blinken reschedules his trip. Yellen’s speech, while affirming national security concerns, contained a clear message for Xi: Engage on economics, and relations can improve.
Spokespeople from the White House and Treasury and Commerce departments told me that economic engagement with Beijing has always been a goal; there’s been no shift in strategy. But several other officials told me that public declarations of unity mask a growing tension inside the administration about the policy direction.
Chinese leaders clearly believe that dealing with Yellen rather than Blinken is better for them. Yellen has repeatedly argued for lowering tariffs on China. Treasury officials reportedly persuaded the White House to narrow restrictions on outbound investment to China. A long-delayed executive order to make this happen will probably not cover large areas of American economic vulnerability, including clean-energy technology and biotechnology.
Raimondo, for her part, has taken a relatively tough stance on China. She has, for instance, championed legislation to reinvigorate American semiconductor manufacturing. But she also has political ambitions, and a trip to Beijing would bolster her foreign policy bona fides.
To be sure, raising economic pressure on China in the current environment would carry its own risks. In fact, some observers praise Biden’s “course correction,” while others point out that outreach is unlikely to produce results because the administration is not prepared to concede to Beijing’s demands to back off on tariffs, technology restrictions and bans on products made with forced labor.
Officials emphasize that the purpose of a Yellen or Raimondo trip would be to discuss macroeconomic issues rather than to negotiate any specific agreement. Expectations for substantive progress would be low. But if so, why go at all?
Beijing’s pattern has long been to lure American administrations into economic dialogues that go nowhere, but that end up delaying U.S. action to hold China accountable for its unfair trade practices. There’s no reason to fall for this ploy yet again.
Yes, the United States should seek engagement and competition with China simultaneously. But Beijing is trying to force Biden to prioritize the former over the latter. The problem with going along is that until the United States addresses China’s economic aggression, it can expect neither fair competition nor security. -(WashingtonPost)
