Crucial importance of cordial India-China ties for Southern development
A gathering of BIMSTEC member states in Thailand currently could not have come at a better time, considering the rising economic needs of the South and South-East Asian regions in particular and those of the global South in general. The economic pressures at present being generated by the Ukrainian conflict, for example, help highlight the need for stepped-up Southern economic cooperation and it goes without saying that cordial relations between China and India could have a huge positive bearing on this process.
China is not a formal member of BIMSTEC but her economic strength and reach is of such proportions that no regional grouping in our part of the world could expect to make substantial headway in economic development without seeking to closely link up with China in such processes. Moreover, the totality of states of South and South East Asia enjoy close economic and other vital ties with China.
Accordingly, although BIMSTEC may not formally feature immediate, stepped-up economic ties with China it may need to envisage close economic interaction with latter at some point or the other as it goes along, if it has not already done so, in consideration of China’s pervasive economic presence.
India knows these realities and compulsions best. Although China-India ties have been experiencing some exceptional strains since mid-2020 when issues growing out of their unresolved border dispute resulted in some armed confrontations between the sides, India has remained committed to a normalization of relations between the countries on the basis of a continuing dialogue on lingering problems.
For instance, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar was quoted as saying recently that the sides had ‘discussed outstanding issues related to peace and tranquility in border areas’. Jaishankar had also reportedly underlined ‘the importance of peace on the Line of Actual Control as a prerequisite for normalcy in the broader relationship and called for China to take forward disengagement in two remaining friction areas.’
China, for its part, has pointed out that ‘specific issues’ should not be allowed to ‘define the overall relationship’ between the countries. China elaborated that, ‘We should focus our energy and resources on each other’s development, improving people’s livelihoods and accelerating revitalization without letting specific issues to define the overall relationship.’
These statements could be said to be broadly reflective of a desire on the part of the two sides to resume and take forward their negotiations on resolving their outstanding questions but the Chinese side in particular would need to factor in the catalytic role played by confidence-building measures in bringing about normalization and cordiality in inter-state ties.
It follows from this position that concrete measures would need to be initiated by China and India ‘on the ground’ to build and sustain friendly ties between them. The resultant thaw ought to inspire the states to further invigorate their normalization efforts and to persist in them. Put simply, there needs to be evidence that the sides are progressing in resolving their border dispute, besides sorting out other thorny questions.
India and China have conducted exhaustive research together on how a normalization of their ties could help put an end to the arms race between them and lay the basis for mutual and regional development. Perhaps the authorities concerned could revisit such past research and think of ways of putting it to good use at present. Just one such collection of research papers is titled, ‘China and India – History, Culture, Cooperation and Competition’ edited by Paramita Mukherjee, Arnab K. Deb and Miao Pang (SAGE Publications India Pvt. Ltd. 2016).
Referring to the consequences for India, for instance, from the stepped-up arms spending between the states over the years, it is said on page 128 in the above collection with regard to India’s defeat in the 1962 India-China war: ‘The defeat signaled a sea change in Indian defence thinking and ground preparation strategies with defence spending rising rapidly so that by the early 1970s, it accounted for 40 per cent of the central budget and over 3 per cent of Gross National Product (GNP) (Garver 2001, 63).’
It is plain to see that if India and China could contain their arms race through a normalization of relations, it is not only them but South and South East Asia and the contiguous regions that would stand to gain as a result of development and material advancement getting the opportunity to be prioritized over arms spending by the relevant governments. After all, the excessive expenditure on arms by the foremost powers of the South have had a cascading effect on the defence budgets of their neighbours.
As previously pointed out in this column, if there are two ‘Swing States’ of note in the world today, they are India and China. Right now, they are both economic super powers and by virtue of this fact wield tremendous influence internationally and are in a position to work towards the material betterment of the South.
Now perhaps more than ever before, the South needs China’s and India’s cooperation. As matters stand, Black Sea grain shipments from Ukraine to the world are in jeopardy as a result of Russia withdrawing from the initial agreement to ensure the security of such supplies through the relevant sea corridor. In the event such shipments coming to an abrupt halt the chances are that millions of people in particularly the African continent would face the prospect of starvation. Moreover, food would cost more for the rest of the world as a result of a Black Sea blockade by Russia. Greater pauperization would be witnessed the world over.
Here is an occasion on which China and India could mediate and ensure that the food needs of particularly the poor of the world are met. They could even use their influence positively and pave the way for a negotiated end to the Ukraine conflict. China and India have thought it best not to condemn Russia over its invasion of Ukraine and are likely to enjoy the confidence of Russia. Hence, their eligibility to bring peace to Ukraine.
As commentators and researchers have pointed out there are vast opportunities for economic interaction between China and India. Closer economic link-ups between India’s North-East and South-West China, for example, could generate abundant spin-off benefits for the countries’ adjacent regions. What is vitally needed is the political resolve to leave the past behind. Whether it be global politics or economics, that is, the opportunities for constructive intervention on the part of the regional giants are vast.
