Abolishing The Presidency – Two Cunning Foxes Plan The Unexpected! 

By Sam Panditha –

A land mark political development has emerged this week. Based on reports that few weeks ago President Ranil Wickremesinghe (RW) and National Organiser of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) Basil Rajapaksa (Basil) discussed the future political agenda, a new situation has emerged. News analysts and some politicians have revealed that a plan is set to abolish the Executive Presidency, and as a result, allow the life of the current parliament to the end of August 2025- the full 5 years it was elected for.

This video has interesting public speeches. Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) of National People’s Power (NPP) revealing a RW plan to abolish the Presidency before the scheduled next Presidential Election in October 2024. The same clip shows a speech by Mahindananda Aluthgamage – SLPP announcing that the next parliamentary election will be in two years.

Let us look at the technicalities. Next Presidential election has to be held before 17 October 2024, and nominations to be called latest in August 2024. Likely Presidential Candidates RW (supported by Pohottuwa and possibly Namal Rajapaksa to be PM), Sajith (SJB) and AKD (NPP), and possibly Dulles Alahapperuma (Freedom People’s Congress- Nidahasa Janatha Sabha). The current public anger against the Rajapaksas and the resignation of Gotabaya and Mahinda during the Aragalaya, places the SLPP at a distinct disadvantage in any coming elections. RW on the other hand and the UNP could not win a single seat at the last election, albeit the one seat allocated free. RW – SLPP Presidential alliance will have a major Challenge. AKD and NPP had a significant public following on their anti- corruption stand and demand for a “revolutionary” political change away from the historical “family” driven politics and overcoming the county bankruptcy. Recent RW tactic to not hold the local elections (saying no funds available) is due to the fear of the AKD-NPP public support. Sajith (SJB) chances also difficult to assess. In a 3 horse or 4 horse race, it is highly likely AKD- NPP has a good chance to win. If a non- RW-SLPP candidate wins, the winner will definitely dissolve the Parliament currently dominated by the SLPP.

On the other hand, if the Presidency is abolished through a 2/3 Parliamentary vote and a public referendum, there will be no Presidency after October 2024. Hence the current parliament would run the full 5 year term ending on 20 August 2025. Current SLPP aligned MPs are fully aware that if RW/SLPP aligned Presidential candidate is defeated in October 2024, the new President will definitely dissolve parliament. If the Presidency is abolished these SLPP aligned MPs will hold the Parliamentary power till August 2025. On the one hand, without a President, SLPP allied parliament will handle the budget and pass voter friendly projects to please the electorate, and hope for a revival of SLPP political chances. Current SLPP Linked MPs are fully aware that if an election is held next October, their chances of re-election as MPs are pretty slim. Additionally, they also know that Sri Lankan voters have a very short memory and given a chance to entice them with roads, jobs, gifts, Samurdhi etc., SLPP political future can be secured. A further factor is, if an AKD-NPP candidate wins, they may start an immediate anti-corruption drive and some current MPs may end up in jail. These are all the reasons to abolish the Presidency and keep their Parliament power till August 2025.

If the covert RW/Basil plan to abolish the Presidency through 2/3 and a referendum goes ahead, it will be difficult for opposition politicians AKD/NPP, Sajith/SJB, SLFP or even Wimal Weerawansa and Tamil and Muslim parties to oppose the move, as almost all have in the past campaigned for the abolition of the Presidential system. AKD/ NPP in the video quoted above responds supportive of the abolition of the Presidential system, but add that they will only support if the abolition referendum is also linked to the dissolution of the parliament at the same time. This is wishful thinking on AKD part. The Parliamentary proposal for the abolition of the Presidency will be drafted and passed by SLPP allied MPs. They would never add the AKD proposed clause to dissolve the Parliament as well. If the referendum to abolish the Presidency comes to vote even the public tired of the current Presidential system would vote to pass it. AKD/NPP, Sajith/ SJB, SLFP and other parties would find it difficult to publicly oppose the referendum. So there is a pretty good chance the abolition referendum will be passed, Presidency abolished in October 2023 and the current Parliament to run the country till August 2025 with the SLPP having a very comfortable majority.

JR Jayewardena (JRJ) was referred to as the cunning fox. He used the massive parliamentary majority to extend parliament by six years in the face of a potential election loss.

There was a political dark side of JRJ political coup through the referendum. He enjoyed power beyond the initial public mandate and used the power to ban the JVP. Rohana Wijeweera that came to mainstream politics after the failed 1971 JVP uprising had to go into hiding. They again took up arms in the late 1980s and terror to fight the regime, as there were no options for a banned party to contest elections. The current AKD/ NPP have chosen a fully democratic path. They were again cheated by RW who blocked the April 23 planned local government election which AKD/NPP were expected to win. Now if through the abolition of the Presidency and allowing the current parliament to go the full term till August 2025, the move would block/delay AKD/NPP plans to come to power.

RW on the other hand can even claim he is a full democrat and was against the Presidential system for some time. He can state though many former Presidents came to power with a promise to abolish the Presidency, after getting power they ignored the pledge, and only he would abolish it. RW can justify his past action to block the April 23 local Government election on grounds of saving costs (no funds to hold the election), more after the abolition of the Presidency. He can claim he saved billions for the future Sri Lankans from totally abolishing Presidential Elections.

A further twist on the Gimmicks side was presented by Justice Minister Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe. He has submitted a Cabinet resolution seeking approval to introduce a new system to elect members to Parliament under a mixed system. According to the resolution, the electorates will return 160 members to the House whereas another 65 seats will be reserved under proportional representation. Such a resolution if passed and implemented through the referendum, it would require the “de-limitation” Commission to come up with the boundaries for the new 160 seats. We have seen the local Government elections getting postponed due to the de-limitation committee delay and parliamentary consensus in defining the new electoral boundaries, which would be accepted by all parties. That could take ages and the current parliament life can be “indefinitely” extended until agreement is reached.

The final word. From the two cunning foxes (RW & BASIL) who would have the last laugh is an open question. RW agreement to abolish the Presidency must be on condition that after Presidency is abolished, SLPP would make RW the Prime Minister till August 2025. What guarantees would RW get on that! How well SLPP would keep such a promise? With SLPP and Namal political ambitions, surely they would discard Ranil to history and appoint Namal as the new Prime Minister.

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