Advisability of SL addressing India’s security concerns
In a welcome development in relation to Sri Lanka’s regional policy, some state functionaries of the Ranil Wickremesinghe regime have gone on record as having stated that Sri Lanka would be taking notable cognizance of India’s security concerns, going forward. This is as it should be. None of India’s immediate neighbours could afford to overlook such considerations if they are in fact acting in deference to their national interests.
Only time would tell whether the Maldives has acted in its best interests by giving its regional policy a markedly pro-China tilt. It does not follow from this policy premise that the Maldives would be henceforth abandoning the requirement of balancing its regional relations by neglecting to maintain cordial ties with India. But a clear grasp of regional political realities and linked compulsions would have rendered it incumbent on the Maldives to give priority to India rather China, while anchoring its foreign policy in the central tenets of Non-alignment.
It ought to be plain to see by all of India’s closest neighbours that they cannot be blind to India’s best interests. After all, India is the region’s preponderant power. India could not be described as seeking to establish any sort of ‘suzerainty’ over South Asia, but given the multiplicity and vastness of its interests it cannot but be constantly vigilant over what is occurring in its neighbourhood, particularly in the security sphere.
Too much is at stake for India in the current ‘world disorder’ and its neighbours would be acting in their interests by looking at regional and global developments from an Indian viewpoint as well. After all, as a major regional and global power, India cannot be expected to ‘look the other way’, so to speak, while events overtake it in particularly its neighbourhood. Moreover, plain commonsense dictates that countries would do well not to fall out with their closest neighbours, if they are seeking peace and quiet on a durable basis.
It is up to the Maldives’ government and the country’s people to decide on the fundamental tenets of their foreign policy but the region’s past experience in inter-state ties, or ‘geopolitics’, ought to convince them of the advisability of keeping India’s best interests at heart always.
A peek at Indo-Lanka relations, for instance, would drive home the advisability of adopting such a course. In the mid-eighties, for example, Sri Lanka chose to enlist the close support of some Western intelligence agencies in its efforts to quell the LTTE rebellion but this move had India deeply worried.
This was mainly on account of the fact that the Indian government of the day was implementing a more pro-Soviet foreign policy and was tilting Eastward in the then ongoing East-West global confrontation. Sri Lanka’s initiatives were seen by New Delhi as undermining its security interests. The consequence was a most troubled spell in Indo-Lanka relations. Among other things, Indian cooperation for Sri Lanka in the latter’s fight against the separatist LTTE was not at its best.
This episode alone in Indo-Lanka relations establishes the point that cordial relations with India are a must for the latter’s neighbours, if it is regional stability that is sought. Accordingly, India’s close neighbours would do well to follow a policy of establishing ‘equidistance’ in their ties with India and other regional or global powers. In other words, Non-alignment is best.
We need to dwell just awhile on the public comments that were spurred by a recent state visit to India by a JVP team. Most of these comments were not quite to the point. The JVP, or any other political party for that matter, reserves the right to revise or amend its policy on India or any other state party. Such policies are not sacrosanct or immutable.
Policy changes need to be initiated to meet current, legitimate requirements, and this is true of most public entities, including states. Accordingly, the JVP visit to India is really no eye-brow raising affair and ought to be treated as such. A ‘storm in a tea cup’, so to speak.
Moreover, there is no doubting India’s continued economic vibrancy in South Asia and the world in the years to come. India’s market capitalization, for example, is expected to reach nearly $10 trillion by the turn of this decade, according to some commentators, from the current $4.3 trillion. This is calculated to be a 132 per cent rise during the mentioned period. In combination with the fact that India is continuing to be the most successful democracy in South Asia, India’s neighbouring democracies ought to see it to be in their best interests to maintain stable relations with her.
This consideration ought not to prevent India’s neighbours from cultivating close ties with economic powers outside the region, such as China. The latter is central to the functioning of the world economy and it would be foolish on the part of any country to overlook the presence of China, but it would be more counter-productive for a South Asian country to cultivate ties with big powers outside the region and downplay in the process, the crucial, multi-faceted importance of India.
International politics at present are volatile and unpredictable as never before and it would be unwise for the more economically vulnerable countries of the South to team-up rigidly with the West or the East; the latter referring in the main to China and Russia. Given their weaknesses, they should find it advisable to refrain from linking too closely with these power blocs. They would do well to pursue a pragmatic foreign policy and adhere to the Non-aligned principle of maintaining cordial links with all the state actors that matter.
However, the challenges ahead for the South could be quite formidable. It is not very clear, for example, whether Sri Lanka has put firmly on hold its decision to join the West in the latter’s military standoff with the Houthi rebels in the Red Sea. However, increasing pressure by the West for Sri Lanka to join its alliance in the Red Sea in the days ahead cannot be ruled out. If it does cave in to Western pressure, Sri Lanka would stand exposed as a pliant tool of the West.
In the final analysis, though, economics drive politics. Considering that Sri Lanka is an abject economic failure, it is not too difficult to foresee Sri Lanka succumbing to Western pressure. Rather than dither further, countries such as Sri Lanka would do well to explore the possibility more and more of integrating their economies with those of the foremost powers of the South. South-South cooperation needs to be revived in conjunction with India’s ‘Look East’ policy.
