Is Trump Likely To Be The Next American President?

By Kumar David –

Even republicans agree that trump is obnoxious

Trump is not liked by most Americans, including most Republicans who support him because, though they agree that his behaviour is grotesque, he seems to be an election winner. Depending on the outcome of legal wrangles before the courts it is even conceivable that he may be the first person to contest the presidency from behind bars! (Who knows; it may increase his sympathy vote!). On Tuesday 5 March (Super Tuesday) when 15 to 16 states choose their party delegates to back a candidate for nomination both Trump and Biden scored resounding victories as Republican and Democratic nominees, respectively. Trump’s case is more important than Biden’s for reasons I will explain anon.

Trump can be notoriously and dangerously inconsistent. (Someone quipped that the apps for the “Make America Great Again” logo are made in China!). Russia is pulling all stops in supporting him as evident from RT (Russian TV), Kremlin spokesmen and Putin himself. They are going to burn their fingers.

I have written recently about a global swing to the right. The conservative centre-right narrowly won Portugal’s the March 10 election but it was the far-right Chega Party that surged from zero to 48 seats in the 230 seat Assembly and took 18% of the poll; Sweden joined NATO; Haiti descended into anarchy and the Prime Minister was chased out; Pakistan’s army installed a right-wing cabinet ignoring Imran Khan’s populist Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice) and so on. Nearer home, in Taiwan the pro-independence Democratic People’s Party (DPP) won a plurality 40% while the KMT which favours closer relations with China took a lesser 33.5%.

And worst of all and nearer home, Muslim-loathing Modi decided to confer Indian citizenship on non-Muslims ONLY – Hindus, Sikhs, Jains, Buddhists, Parsis, and Christians – who migrated from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Afghanistan and arrived in India before December 31, 2014. A repugnant move that will improve Modi’s electoral prospects just as Sinhala-Buddhist rhetoric is useful in Sri Lankan politics.

A Washington Post (WP) article of 11 March 2024 by Ashley Parker, Marianne LeVine and Ross Godwin says of Trump: “One constant is the slew of falsehoods from hyperbole to outright lies. (Our WP’s) Fact Checker found that in the four years of his presidency, Trump offered a total of 30,573 untruths — an average of roughly 21 erroneous claims a day”. Trump’s stump speeches provide a road map of what a second term will look like — he promises to root out the so-called deep state of civil servants (sic!), crack down on illegal immigration and pull back from the world stage (Good!). It also reveals physical feebleness, slurring of words, confusing names of world leaders and attacks on minorities in offensive ways. It is spine chilling that whichever way America turns (Obnoxious Donald or Sleepy Joe) it’s in for a terrible future.

There is a difference between Party Conventions & Caucuses and mass election polling of the public by polling agencies and mass-media outfits seeking to assess how people may vote for this candidate or that. Recent (February and March) polls show Trump ahead by a small lead in most states except obvious Democratic ones like California, New York and the small New England states. It seems Trump may win the presidency unless things reverse in the next six months. An ABC News/Ipsos survey of 536 U.S. adults, conducted between March 8-9, found that only 29 percent have a favourable view of the former president compared to 59 percent who view him unfavourably. There may well be more swings of mood this way and that as domestic and international (Middle East, Ukraine and Russia) factors evolve.

Biden (“Genocide Joe” protesters call him) lags Trump in public polls for three reasons. He is a bumbling, stumbling 81-year-old (d.o.b. 20 November, 1942) foggy who may not live out the next presidential term 2025 – 2029. This makes the choice of running-mate, Vice-Presidential candidate, crucial. He/she will have to assume the reigns if sleepy Joe’s hardening arteries induce a medical declaration of incompetence to continue in office. Kamala Harris, the current VP, is frontrunner for nomination but she has null mass appeal. There are others waiting in the wings such as Pete Buttigieg (Transport Secretary) and Gavin Newsome (California Governor). Michele Obama is a winning candidate to defeat Trump, but her office has shut down stories that she may challenge sleepy Joe for the nomination. This may change if Joe himself invites her to replace him.

The second reason weighing against Bidden is the economy. Inflation is now 3.7% year-on-year. Though less than feared it is still above the Fed’s 2% target. Unemployment at between and 3.4%% and 3.9% has remained fairly stable over recent years, however, the structure of employment is changing with many workers quitting the leisure industry, trade and services. The employment and inflation scenarios have been topsy-turvy since Coavid-19. I have seen no convincing analysis of exactly what is going on. Changes in employment patterns since 2003 published by the US Chamber of Commerce show 20-year trends. On-line purchasing of merchandises, air-ticket reservations and a breakdown of the work ethic, is playing havoc with long established employment patterns. It seems that employment in hotels and leisure facilities is very volatile and retail trade is unstable. Financial activity (capitalist sector) is stable.

America’s Christian Fundamentalism

Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee so it is fitting to address the perplexity of fundamentalist Christian enthusiasm for so un-godly un-Christian a soul?

But first an anecdote that my informant swears is Gospel true!

Heard in a bar adjacent to the Trump Tower in New York.

Man: “I have been a politician for decades, but I am completely honest”

Lady: “Oh yeah! Wow! And I have been a call-girl for decades but am still a virgin”   

For American Christian-fundamentalists what matters is not the factuality of Trump’s sinful, un-Christian soul, but rather a belief that divine forces are acting through him. Republicans are no longer committed to democracy because they are concerned with something bigger. Yes, Trump is indeed a crook intent on maximizing wealth, and carnal pleasure, but spiritual blindness prevents bookish Christians from seeing how the Holy Spirit is using him. Smokey is channelling the “secret power of lawlessness,” to defeat the ultimate evil, anti-Americanism. What matters is not the factual truth of Trump’s sinful character, but rather the higher truth that spiritual forces are sending him as a divine instrument to stave off the real anti-Christ, anti-Americanism.

Note on Historical Materialism (HM)

Of course, if the economic policy of a government fails it is liable to be driven out at the next election; that’s simplicity itself. However, the materialist conception of history refers to events on a giant scale; changes in the mode of production, division of society into classes and the emergence of different forms of state. The great peasant revolts that overthrew dynasties in China, the agricultural disaster in Continental Italy after the Eastern Roman Empire was founded in Constantinople in 330AD, the ravaging of Peru-Boliva by the Spanish Conquistadors and the Heart of Darkness (the genocide of European slave-traders who transported millions from the West Coast of Africa to the Americas) are examples.

Sometimes I worry that the Sri Lankan left (JVP and NPP) may jumble the scale of things and fail to appreciate the importance of side-stepping conflict with India, and the need to defuse ethnic conflict within the Island, which belongs, albeit on a smaller scale, to a historical materialist agenda. I have been informed that a high-level business association interviewed Anura Kumara and found him wanting. Apparently, the outfit thought that his understanding of economics was weak and that the intellectual support provided to him by his top lieutenants was inadequate. I will return to these themes in my next column.

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