Who Will Blink First, When, Why and How

By N Sathiya Moorthy

For political moves to succeed, the timing is as important as the decision – and also the initiator. Only the coming days and weeks will show if Ministers Susil Premajayantha, Prasanna Ranatunga, Ali Sabry & Co got their timing right in announcing their outright support for incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe’s re-election bid – which, incidentally, the candidate himself is yet to announce in unequivocal terms.

The Avarudu-Tamil New Year holiday mood had already set in when they made their announcement, and it is anybody’s guess who all took notice, which all did not, and who all ignored the same – from among the voters, that is.

But their SLPP leadership did take notice, and it became clear when the executive committee met in equal hurry to advise party MPs not to go public on their support for presidential candidates. For effect, in a move that is late by close to two long and memorable years in the nation’s post-Independence history, the party also decided to initiate action against former party chairman G L Peiris and a handful of other MPs for signing up with the rival SJB, the other day.

The SLPP did not have a problem when close to two dozen MPs formed a separate group, fielded a common candidate in party MP Dullas Alahapperuma as a ‘rebel’ candidate against incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe, whom the party leadership and a majority of MPs endorsed in the parliamentary vote to elect a new President when the post fell vacant in 2022. Since then, the Dullas-Peiris faction used to vote against every bill and resolution moved by the Government, which the SLPP majority endorsed and also voted into law for whatever purpose they were meant for.

Now, if the SLPP has decided to initiate action only against those that had signed up an electoral understanding with the SJB, whose Leader of the Opposition (LoP) Sajith Premadasa has for long declared himself as a presidential candidate, the reasons are not far to seek. While the party leadership has long since given up on the other faction, it does not want any further weakening of the parliamentary group, which in turn could scuttle its strategy for the presidential – and also parliamentary – polls. Again, it is a matter of timing, this one that of the election(s).

Winking first

The message for the ministerial group is clear, that the party would sack them if they formally crossed over and joined Ranil’s UNP, which with just one parliamentarian in its rolls, can do with a lot and lot of MPs. But the SLPP is unsure of the fallout, the consequences.

First and foremost, will it lead to a further depletion of its sure-fire majority in Parliament even after President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the party nominee, had to quit under some of the most stressful circumstances that the nation has ever faced? Secondly, if a massive split in the SLPP parliamentary party triggers an equally big defection from the SJB, too, in the name of strengthening the hands of Ranil, who after all was their pre-split UNP boss for years?

Such a possibility has been doing the rounds in the social media almost from day one, but no one knew who would wink first – rebels from the SLPP or the SJB. Now that the SLPP ministerial team has seemingly made the first move, there will be a lot of noise, heat and dust once the festive mood dies down. Or, will the decision itself die down in the face of disciplinary action indicated by the party leadership?

The chances are even, as at least some among those SLPP leaders backing a Ranil candidacy may not be sure of returning to Parliament in the next round of elections, on whichever side they contest. They are more than aware that if they shook hands with Ranil now, and if some of SJB MPs too are to cross over, the latter, owing to old allegiance in the pre-split UNP, will stand a better chance for re-nomination.

Fast-track move

Reports indicated that the fast-track move by the ministerial group owed to a breakdown in the talks between President Wickremesinghe and SLPP’s Basil Rajapaksa, on which of the two elections should come first. Naturally, the former wants his re-election settled before facing the parliamentary polls from a position of personal strength. Ranil seems to be too positive for his own comfort.

Already, there are talks of the ‘SLFP partner’ (?) in the government rebelling against party chief and former President Maithripala Sirisena. Spearheaded by none other than Chandrika Bandaranaike-Kumaratunga (CBK), whose ‘family party’ it was before it became the ‘Rajapaksa party’, SLFP rebels have now obtained a court stay against Sirisena continuing as party chairman.

The Sirisena group has since claimed that the current effort, which includes the naming of Minister Nimal Siripala de Silva as ‘interim chairman’ of the SLFP, was aimed at backing Ranil in the presidential election. Sirisena, upset over not being accommodated in the Ranil Ministry, had cut himself off from the Government in Parliament and outside. There were also weak mumblings about his group wanting to contest the presidential polls.

Too positive

By the looks of it, Ranil seems convinced about his victory in the presidential polls. He does not seem to think, or does not want to think of the reverse. What if he loses the presidential poll? It could well sound like retirement from active politics for him, and all those that back him now and later will have nowhere to go. None of them seems to be leadership material to be able to float a new party or alliance, and make a mark, however limited, in a future parliamentary election.

It is equally true for the SLPP and the Rajapaksas. What if Ranil agrees to the parliamentary polls first, and they contest it together — and lose it, badly? Both of them will be off the scene when a parliamentary poll is held – which anyway has to be held by October.

The third alternative is for having both the elections together and on the same day. Whether Ranil wants it or not, the Election Commission has repeatedly reiterated that it is not up to it. The very logistics of it is unworkable.

Imagine a voter having to cast his lot for three ‘preference votes’ in the presidential polls and separately for the parliamentary election under the current scheme of ‘Proportionate Representation’ (PR). First, the voter has to choose one party or group from many, and then will also has to tick his or her list of ‘preferential candidates’ whose numbers are ten if not more.

When these two elections are held independent of the other, the Sri Lankan voter, possibly given his higher literacy rate, has handled the complexity of polling in both with finesse and confidence. The poll percentage has been high and the number of invalid votes, caused by the inherent mix-and-match style, especially for the parliamentary elections, has been relatively low. It is rarely achieved in many of the other Third World nations, so to say.

Level-playing field

In the midst of it all, the Cabinet has decided to amend the relevant legislation to increase the security deposit for independent presidential candidates from LKR 75,000 to LKR 3.1 million. For political party candidates, it will be LKR 2.6 m.

This may now be one occasion where under the prevailing circumstances, a parliamentary vote on the subject may be difficult to predict. Even if passed, it is sure to be contested in the Supreme Court, as much by smaller parties as by Independents and civil society organisations – alleging the denial of a possible level-playing field.

(The writer is a Chennai-based Policy Analyst & Political Commentator. Email: sathiyam54@nsathiyamoorthy.com)