Is Scarborough subway a billion-dollar boondoggle?

Is the Scarborough subway another billion-dollar boondoggle?

There isn’t a value-for-money case for the Scarborough subway extension. Yet Mayor John Tory and Premier Kathleen Wynne support this expensive “vanity” subway. At the same time they keep telling us their rapid transit investments are based on careful cost-benefit analysis.

Tory ducks the Scarborough subway controversy by saying the decision has been taken by council. And he doesn’t want to put “a stick in the eye” of the Liberal government.

This is political pandering to Scarborough voters and the Wynne Liberals. Tory has neglected to make the case for a three-stop subway link that will cost $3.56 billon — $1.6 billion more than a modern seven-stop light-rail transit line.

Tory chose this political strategy despite knowing that three highly qualified and independent groups had already recommended an LRT.

Metrolinx favoured replacing the aging RT with a modern LRT link that would cost $1.8 billion. An expert panel established by city council found an LRT superior to a subway on all counts: funding, economic development, transit service, sustainability and social impact. The Pembina Institute also supports an LRT for Scarborough. They maintain it would deliver twice as much service for every dollar invested.

By any measure, the subway option shouldn’t even be on the table.

The 30,000 riders per hour subway capacity is overkill. Peak ridership is expected to grow to only 9,000 by 2031. The subway option will cost about twice as much and, according to Pembina, attract only 23 million riders a year compared to 31 million for an LRT.

By supporting a subway, Tory is placing a $910-million tax burden on the shoulders of Toronto taxpayers. Fully $745 million of this has to come from a property tax surcharge — which amounts to $41 a year for 30 years for the average homeowner. That’s on top of the tax hikes that will inevitably flow from the rest of Tory’s election agenda.

But when it comes to Tory’s own SmartTrack plan, he stresses it will not burden local taxpayers and must go through a rigorous examination process. He said recently, “The express purpose of what we’re doing here is to move forward with a fact-based, transparent process.”

This begs the question: why does SmartTrack get a comprehensive “fact-based” analysis while the Scarborough subway doesn’t?

Part of the answer rests with Wynne, who backed the subway option in an effort to win seats in vote-rich Scarborough. Tory went along in pursuit of Liberal support for his mayoralty bid and for future favours.

Wynne compromised sound transit planning while chasing the 2013 byelection seat in Scarborough-Guildwood and more recently in the June provincial election. She committed the $1.4 billion, originally meant for an LRT, to the subway link, knowing it was not the best financial or operating option.

During the last election Wynne promised all future transit infrastructure investments would be based on “rigorous business case analysis.” She still hasn’t explained why this decision-making process isn’t being applied to the Scarborough transit link.

Her political strategy worked. The Liberals won all five Scarborough seats. But if the subway link is built, these seats will cost taxpayers an additional $1.6 billon and saddle Scarborough with a transit solution that’s inferior to an LRT.

Does all this have a familiar ring? Surely by now Wynne has developed the ability to see a billion-dollar boondoggle coming down the track.

Building a subway extension into Scarborough has all the hallmarks of a spending scandal. It’s unlikely that Wynne or Tory will still be around for the opening in 2023. But tax-weary Toronto and provincial voters will be. And by then they’ll still be paying for an overbuilt and underused transit white elephant.

There’s still time for Wynne and Tory to put the Scarborough transit link through the same rigorous value-for-money analysis they say is being applied to every other transit investment. It would go a long way toward showing they’re serious about making transit decisions based on costs and benefits rather than wasting money on parochial politics.

R. Michael Warren is a former corporate director, Ontario deputy minister, TTC chief general manager and Canada Post CEO. r.michael.warren@gmail.com