UNP Confident While MR Makes Gains

The air over political Sri Lanka is thick and heavy with uncertainty. Some key figures of the previous administration have found themselves remanded although Johnston Fernando managed to make a successful bail application. Gothabya Rajapaksa was busy with his legal team preparing his answers having made an unexpected gain from the Supreme Court no less whilst Mahinda Rajapaksa continued his journeys in an almost stalking horse fashion. The reality of being the head of state from a political angle came home to roost for President Sirisena – who was in essence forced to make a few more Ministerial appointments.

For those who were quick to criticise Mahinda Rajapaksa when he found it politically necessary to have what was described as the ‘world’s biggest cabinet’ to achieve stability, Sirisena’s need to make even more appointments this week was not a shock by any stretch of the imagination. The President made appointments for Lakshman Yapa, P Bandaranayaka, Ranjith Siyambalapitiya, Hemal Gunasekera and C Suriyarachchi. This he hoped would send a message of hope to those that continued to be in the Rajapaksa camp. With elections continually being asked for by the Prime Minister and his party, the pressure was clearly on Sirisena.

During the planning of the joint effort to achieve regime change, Ranil Wickremesinghe made a certain sacrifice when he agreed to suggestions that he not be the candidate but go instead for a common candidate. The PM had been of the view that he would win but his coalition partners begged to differ. Instead of being stuck in the mire, Wickremesinghe agreed on flexibility and went with the common candidate plan. That resulted in Sirisena coming forward and of course change was achieved.

Once the common candidate strategy as agreed Wickremesinghe was yet again to prove to be understanding not flexible, instead of insisting that an immediate dissolution of parliament be made soon after the presidential poll, he agreed to a 100-day programme. Most analysts predicted that with the loss of the presidency the SLFP would face almost certain defeat at a parliamentary poll. Wickremesinghe is now facing a situation where President Sirisena is prevaricating when it comes to the issue of dissolving parliament. An understanding of politics is not wholly necessary to realise that with the present flux the SLFP finds itself in, the party likely to emerge as the biggest in terms of seats in the next parliament would be the UNP. That is a situation that Sirisena clearly wants to avoid. However he faces stiff opposition to that aim with the antics of the Rajapaksa supporting group. They are of course insisting on the impossible which is namely that Rajapaksa be named the Prime Ministerial candidate. However that request has been turned down firmly by the President as party Chairman. However other negotiations are underway. The play is for nominations to be given to various persons including those that are now in remand on the basis that they are in any event innocent until proven otherwise of the charges they are facing. The fact that Basil Rajapaksa is a dual national means nothing since if he so wishes he may give up his American nationality at very short notice. He is likely in the circumstances be able to maintain his residency in the Unites States. In the event Gothabya also seeks a nomination from the SLFP he will face not too dissimilar circumstances.

Even though the parrying is going on about the nominations list, a section of the SLFP are still hopeful that at the end of the day there will be an equitable settlement between Rajapaksa and Sirisena as the head of the party, which will see a compromise situation being reached. Until unity is reached or at least an agreement between the two factions is reached, the question of elections remains uncertainty. There is also the ecclesiastical angle or the astrological charts to consider. A major change in the positioning of the stars happens around early July and given the penchant of several Ministers to look to the stars for guidance and in spite of the spectacular loss for Rajapaksa who was helped by his astrologer, the need to peer into the stars is very much a live consideration.

Deep unhappiness – and the message is being spread to the grass roots – about the apparently lop sided manner in which Rajapaksa supporters are being incarcerated is growing. In the case of the former monitoring MP for Foreign Affairs Sajin Vass Gunawardena a peculiar situation has arisen where he is named as the fourth accused in connection with cars that are apparently missing from the presidential transport pool. While Gunawardena remains in remand in Colombo, the first and second accused were granted bail while in the case of Gunawardena his court dates are merely being postponed. For him to go to the next step which would be the High Court, he needs a formal decision of refusing bail from the Magistrates Court. It is though that may well happen in a further two weeks.

In his case the facts that have been presented appear to be hard to understand. The essence is that Sajin Vass Gunawardena’s security detail returned back 16 vehicles to the pool and obtained a receipt. According to the FCID they are now looking into how Gunawardena had so many issued to him. They appear to have not considered the fact that Gunawardena was assessed for security risks and it was under that assessment that he received a security contingent including STF personnel. Gunawardena had been issued this at the end of 2005 after the security threat assessment was done. To comprehend that he had used this fleet for nearly 10 years without authority is to stretch one’s imagination to beyond incredulity. But that is exactly the line being pursued by the FCID. Whether the Attorney General’s Department will agree that there is a realistic chance of a successful prosecution remains of course to be seen.

Of course there remains a large pool of decision makers who have no sympathy for the predicament Mr Gunawardena finds himself in. That in itself does not detract from the fact that with growing instances of what appears on the surface to be a deviation from accepted legal procedures, the wrong message is being sent out. That message is that this government too, in spite of the claimed ‘good governance’ are also dipping into the bowl of partisan justice – which of course was a claim the present government made against the Rajapaksa administration.

Amidst all the political pressures that are a constant daily reminder of what politics in Sri Lanka is all about Prime Minister Wickremesinghe made time to be the guest of honour at the Colombo residence of Member of the European Parliament, Sri Lankan born Nirj Deva. The occasion was billed as a belated birthday party for both Nirj Deva who turned 67 on the 11^th of May and Ranil Wickremesinghe who turned 66 on the 24^th of March.

The party had a full attendance of the European diplomatic community and several members of Sri Lanka’s government including Ravi Karunanayake. Long time friend of Deva, Harry Jayawardena also graced the event. There was a sufficiently large cake which Nirj invited Ranil to cut. Eventually it was decided that they would both cut the cake simultaneously. However neither wanted to blow the candles out and in the end Nirj Deva did so himself. Mr Deva though did not disclose the details of the traditional wish he may have made, references were made to the long standing support Nirj Deva had given the land of his birth. Mr Deva is an Honorary Adviser to Prime Minister Wickremesinghe on European Affairs.

On the issue of the Jaffna rape victim the Prime Minister had insisted that he be personally kept informed of the developments. The swift transfers of senior Police officers away from the area were at his insistence after it appeared that the Police had initially downplayed the complaint made. The President had promised a speedy trial whilst the Prime Minister was insistent that this matter not escalate in any other direction – keen to ensure that the diaspora groups do not pick on this tragic event to make political mileage.

Within the UNP there was growing confidence that their performance at the parliamentary elections would be favourable to them. However two matters threaten to disrupt what they see as plain sailing. One was the matter of the Treasury Bond and the other was the awarding of the Outer Circular Highway Project Phase III to the same company as the Rajapaksa administration did – at the same price. Cost savings had been made by changing the scope of work and the resulting savings of Rs 30 Billion had been used to award the same contractor another section of the project without calling for a fresh bid. The money for the project came from the EXIM Bank of China – underscoring yet again that China’s economic support for Sri Lanka which reached new heights during the Rajapaksa years. In the meantime the Colombo Port City project – owned by the government of China – was set to proceed but after the parliamentary elections. The Chinese of course hold the trump cards: in case Sri Lanka defaults by cancelling the project, the Chinese do have the right to ask for the returns of their various loans made citing a case of breach of contract. That would have the most far reaching consequences for Sri Lanka’s ability to raise money from international markets.