Rajapaksa’s party is key to deciding Sri Lanka’s new president

ECONOMYNEXT – Despite no member of the Rajapaksa family being in real power at present, former prime minister Mahinda Rajapaksa-led Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) will be the key in electing a new president due to the parliament majority it has, analysts say.

Despite breakaways and defections, the SLPP still holds the majority in the 225-member legislature.

The party was established in 2016 to bring back Mahinda Rajapaksa to power after his defeat in 2015. Former President Maithripala Sirisena unseated his own party leader after defecting in what later transpired was an internationally backed democratic coup.

Political analysts see a tricky situation come July 20 when parliament is supposed to elect a president from among its membership.

The SLPP, even after all the defections, has 116 seat in parliament excluding the speaker while the opposition which includes many parties collectively has 108 members including all breakaway members from the SLPP.

The SLPP is divided on the next leadership though many lawmakers and party stalwarts are rallying around former Media Minister Dullas Alahapperuma, party loyalists have told EconomyNext.

Since the SLPP has the majority, it has final say on electing the 8th executive president of Sri Lanka, if all of its members vote for the same person.

“Greatest threat to Sri Lanka’s stability, at this time, is SLPP asserting its parliament majority to become a proxy for the rejected leaders of the country,” Nishan de Mel, an economist and Executive Director at Colombo-based Verite Research, tweeted.

“After 2015 and 2019 elections, parliament majority of the defeated presidential candidate, stood down. SLPP should do the same now.”

Greatest threat to #SriLanka stability, at this time, is SLPP asserting its parliament majority to become a proxy for the rejected leaders of the country.

After 2015&19 elections, parliament majority of the defeated presidential candidate, stood down. SLPP shld do the same now.

— Nishan de Mel (@NCdeMel) July 10, 2022

In 2015, though Mahinda Rajapaksa had a majority in parliament, his party chose to sit in the opposition while in 2019, Wickremeisnghe’s party did the same after defeat at the November presidential poll.

Opposition leader Sajith Premadasa in a tweet said Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Wickremesinghe, and the SLPP government have all “lost its legitimacy”.

“In the past 2½ years your incompetence has destroyed our country. We will form a new government with a new President & a new PM. All those who oppose this process will be responsible for the ensuing anarchy.”

.@GotabayaR, @RW_UNP & the Pohottuwa government has lost its legitimacy. In the past 2½ years your incompetence has destroyed our country. We will form a new government with a new President & a new PM. All those who oppose this process will be responsible for the ensuing anarchy.

— Sajith Premadasa (@sajithpremadasa) July 11, 2022

But this time, it is not after any national election. It is after an unprecedented resignation of a sitting president.

Gotabaya Rajaoaksa has promised to resign on Wednesday. He has already fled the country, international media reports say, but the speaker has yet to officially announce the resignation.

It will be the SLPP who will decide if the next president is going to be current prime minister and acting president Ranil Wickremesinghe or Janatha Vimukthi Peremuna leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake or former Media Minister Dullas Alahapperuma or opposition leader Premadasa unless it decides to go independent and ask its legislators to vote according to their consciousness.

The Rajapaksas who have been trying to flee the country could still be the crucial decision makers on who the party should support.

“If the SLPP wants to punish the people for forcing Rajapaksas to resign, they can vote to choose an incapable leader or a leader who does not have any support in the parliament.  By doing that, the SLPP can drag the suffering of the people,” a political analyst said asking not to be named.

“They can even choose another Rajapaksa.”

There are still three more Rajapaksas as legislators in the parliament apart from former Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa.

Though they’re no longer in power, a significant number of SLPP lawmakers still have respect for the Rajapaksas, especially for Mahinda Rajapaksa, who gave the political leadership to winning a 26-year war against Tamil Tiger rebels who fought for an independent state in the island nation’s North and East.

Once the president resigns, the standing prime minister will become the caretaker president for 30 days. In the event the prime minister also resigns, the parliament speaker will become the caretaker president. Within the 30 days, the acting president must elect an interim president to run the country for the rest of the tenure of the resigned president.

In the latest Sri Lankan crisis, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has agreed to resign on Wednesday July 13. Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena has already scheduled the voting on July 20.

The nominations are expected to called by the Parliament Secretary General on Friday (15) and nominations should be submitted by July 19.

When it comes to the next president, all but former president Mahinda Rajapaksa will be eligible to be nominated. Mahinda Rajapaksa cannot be president as the constitution bars him from becoming the president for a third term.

The nomination is done through the usual process of proposing and seconding the nominee in parliament and only current parliament members can be nominated. (Colombo/July 13/2022)