Good Bye Ranil; “Welcome” President Dulles Alahapperuma

By Sam Panditha –

Appointment of Ranil Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister was a master stroke from Gota/MR during the peak of Aragalaya. MR was chased from Temple Trees, Gota from Mirihana and Gota worried about how far the movement would go. Ranil was made PM, to take the heat from Rajapaksas and divert attention. At the time, there was no plan/option for Gota to resign, and plan was Ranil to face the front, while they safeguard the dynasty for the future. Ranil also saved them in the past from all the Yahapalanaya investigations against the Rajapaksa clan. Ranil becoming eventual Presidential option was never on the cards two months ago.

The massive protests on 9 July, finally led to the unexpected resignation of Gota. Now Ranil became Acting President and some think he will be elected President. HIGHLY UNLIKELY. WHY? The majority of MPs (145) are from Pohottuwa (SLPP). You need only 113 votes to elect the President. The MR clan objective is to accept a temporary defeat, but plan for the next election or the one after. They realise that the “revolution” will only in the short term affect their vote base. But they are confident that given 5 to 10 years and people will forget and still go on to support MR clan. Baby Namal Presidential hopes are not over- just postponed by say 8 years or 13 years. See what happened in the Philippines! Marcos son is the President after Marcos was ousted in 1986 and the son is back in power 35 years later. Marcos was the world record holder of stealing from Government coffers. In Sri Lanka, we have shorter memories (normally some say till the next cricket victory or the next Avurudu celebration!) and not hard to think Namal would be the President in 8 or 13 years.

Aragalaya was led by mostly Urban youth. The most economically affected –the farmers and the rural poor did not join the Aragalaya. They were complacent with the situation and not well politically motivated. They can easily be fooled again. The LP gas crisis, many dying from gas accidents, fuel shortage and many deaths waiting for fuel, would all be forgotten once a decent trickle of gas and fuel is supplied and they can get the supplies staying in a queue for a few hours. They will assign the blame to Covid, Central Bank heist, or the Ukraine war . All will be forgotten come the next election. They did not believe MR looting stories- where are the claimed stolen money, Lamborghinis, රත්තරන් අස්සයා they asked when they voted Gota in. They are the most gullible- believed in the Kelaniya temple “naya” story. Anti-Muslim rhetoric, Dr Shafi Kurunegala sterilisation stories, වඳ කොත්තු, Athuraliye Rathna Thera මාරාන්තික උපවාසය in front of the Temple in Kandy and gave GOTA two thirds majority. When Ranil was made PM, they never chanted “මහා බැංකු හොරා, bring Arjuna Mahendran back”- the key Gota campaign promises.

The political machinery created by MR/Basil is very strong. Though Basil (කපුටා ) is now down, he was a great political strategist (in a corrupt way) and has the “corrupt political brains”, network and the stolen money to come back. The Buddhist clergy is the other MR/Basil support pillar, long cultivated by MR, going to Anuraphapura and Kandy temples on a weekly basis, and broadcasting to the public giving අට පිරිකර gifts (most probably paid by the Government) and getting the blessings as the best Buddhist leader the country has seen. Even at the peak of Aragalaya, Mahanayakas never asked Gota/ Ranil to resign, while the Cardinal and Christian leaders came out strongly with a call to resign. Only in February 2022 that the Mahanayakas bestowed Gota the title “Sri Lankadheeshwara Padma Vibhushana”. MR cultivated the monks along with his Sinhala Buddhist/ Anti-Muslim image. Gave the monks various titles, V8- Pajeros and even salaries as advisors, Poya day Temple trees bana, “sil redi” etc. Hard to change that cultivated image among the poor and the gullible flag carrying “ Sinhala Buddhists”

At best the 2024 Presidential election the votes would be split and no clear winner or front runner. SLPP would perhaps come to 35%, Sajith perhaps 40% and JVP as a new force gaining, but the public is wary about their 1971 and 1988 scary baggage.

The other issue is the solid party machinery Basil created in SLPP. Also the SLPP MPs and Pradeseeya Sabha network were allowed to fiddle funds and steal. MR/Basil were good in that. While they stole billions, they turned a blind eye to lower rank stealing. The Kurunegala Johnny, Kalutara Raththaran, Piliyandala Lokuge and even local level Moratuwa Chairman, Kurunegala Chairman made millions under MR/Basil flag and the SLPP opportunities provided. The mostly new SLPP MPs have similar aspirations. They had only two years as MPs. Covid and economic downturn prevented their avenues to steal and fulfil their key election objective. They see the next three years as the opportunity to make amends and achieve their MP ambition of the Car permit, pension, perks, massive support salary and opportunity to steal development funds allocated to each MP and other bribes. The 145 SLPP MPs know that they have three more years as MPs and need to maximise their earning/ stealing chances. They are not going to give the Presidential Power outside a SLPP party stalwart, with similar objectives.

They also know Ranil Governance style. Even as make shift PM, he got his old clan Sagala Ratnayaka, Ruwan Wijewardenw, Paltha Range Bandara to head various tasks. Ranil as “President”, surely Malik Samarawickrama, Charitha Ratwatte and possibly Paskaralingam (if still fit) would come to roost. Ranil could never think beyond his Royal College 1960 clan as advisors. At least Gota listened to some close friends. GMOA Padeniya fooled him on the Organic farming. Shavendra Silva guided his Covid “response”. Derana Dilith Jayaweera guided his illegal business earning ideas. Ranil is not that- does not listen to anyone. SLPP knows if Ranil is elected their political leverage and earning options are gone. SLPP would not do “hara kiri” and elect Ranil.

The Aragalaya chant is Gota go home! Ranil go home! Not MR and the SLPP clan to go home. Ranil as President, Aragalaya chants and attempts to topple him will continue. With Ranil removed and a new SLPP face like Dulles- they can say he was elected President through constitutional means and he is “clean” and not linked to Gota/ Ranil. Aragalaya will have to play ball.

From SLPP side, Dulles Presidency would allow the 145 MPs to enjoy their perks for three years, avoid any legal actions on Gota/ Basil/MR, re-build their electoral base to overcome Gota damage and hopefully at least 50% to get elected as MPs in 2025, and keep Namal baby Presidential dream alive. The main financial backer of SLPP is MR/Basil the stolen fund base and their political cronies who benefitted financially. As per my earlier article in Colombo Telegraph, MR build “oligarchs” would financially support the revival of SLPP chances to come back to power.

There is also the Lawyer/ political activist Nagananda filed a case in the Supreme Court that comes up on 18 August 2022 . He is challenging Ranil’s appointment as a National List MP. Nagananda case states that Elections Commissioner sent a letter to the UNP on 7 August 2020, informing the national list seat allocated to the UNP and requesting the nomination with the deadline 15 August 2020. Due to UNP in-fighting UNP letter nominating Ranil as the UNP National list MP was only sent on 16 June 2021, 10 months later. Technically speaking, a basic and serious case that would lead to the cancellation of Ranil appointment as an MP, then his appointment as Acting President and then the nomination as a Presidential candidate in the Parliament. We do not know how independent the Court system in Sri Lanka has operated in the past and now with the change. There are allegations that the Court system was politicised by Gota. Let us see on 18 August case date or a postponement influenced by Ranil allowing time for him to contest as President with the hope of the case becoming null and void under Presidential immunity.

Let us not forget if all MPs vote you just need 113 votes. SLPP has 145 seats. Here comes H.E. the President Dulles Alahapperuma!!!!

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