Hoping Against Hope In The New Year

By Jehan Perera –

The New Year dawned, not with the customary spirit of hope, but with trepidation for most and hopelessness for many. The main topic of discussion and speculation over the past several weeks has been the impact of the Value Added Tax (VAT) of 18 percent which will be extended to nearly all items barring only a few on January 1. The anticipated price rises could have a serious impact on those whose incomes can no longer sustain the lifestyle they once enjoyed. In fact, they can barely survive. The increases in prices will make a bad situation even worse. Recent information put out by international agencies and by the government itself shows the true nature of the problem.

The general thinking among those in government and business at the higher levels, and who presumably are in the know, is that nothing much can be done to remedy the situation. The Central Bank governor has made clear that the present path of economic restructuring needs to be followed if IMF support is to continue, and that without IMF support the country will face a worse calamity. He observed that “it will be a continuous process of renegotiation to change policies in a timely manner, whatever the government is in power for the next four years. There are no restrictions for that. But, the key element is we need to move forward with the programme in order to obtain international support.” However, the issue of the distribution of the burden in meeting the IMF conditions is not so much discussed.

A new UNDP report says the top 1 percent of Sri Lankans own 31 percent of the total personal wealth in the country while the bottom 50 percent own less than 4 percent. It also says 33.4 percent of the population is grappling with vulnerability and deprivation due to falling in debt. The facts and figures in this report suggest an alternative to sharing the economic burden that the present government has chosen to thrust on the working and un-propertied people. The increasing gap between the haves and have-nots will erupt in various disturbances as seen in different countries in history. The government chose to restructure the EPF and ETF pension funds rather than the debt owed to the state and commercial banks. This may be where the change has to be made but there is a dearth of such analyses that are grounded in facts.

The consequences of the government’s choice in terms of placing the burden of economic recovery is also to be seen in the latest Household Survey by the Department of Census and Statistics. It reveals 60.5 percent of households have experienced a drop in their total household average monthly income. Approximately 97.2 percent of households employed at least one coping strategy to manage their household expenditure. 75.2 percent reported a change in diet, while 46.4 percent reported reduced savings or spending their savings. 21.3 percent of respondents have taken loans, sold or mortgaged properties. The desperation in people who find they cannot provide for their families even though they work hard needs to be assuaged. The suicide of a mother who lost her breadwinner husband and who also took away the lives of the two small children is a grim reminder of the fast slide to impoverishment that can lead to desperate actions.

First Hope 

Two years ago, when faced with shortages of essential items and spiraling prices, the people of the country decided that enough was enough and poured out onto the streets to demand the departure of those they held responsible for leading the country to economic disaster. For a short space of four months, the Sri Lanka protest movement, the Aragayala, became headline news throughout the world. A hopeful message accompanied it that Sri Lanka was showing the way that people-induced change could take place and corrupt and failed governments could be removed peacefully from power.

However, as stated in religion, the principalities of evil are deep rooted and entrenched. Those who are self-seeking, corrupt and hard of heart, get themselves rooted in systems of power and privilege that are near impossible to break. In principalities of evil, the laws are misused and misapplied to ensure that even where the letter of the law prevails, the spirit does not. The Supreme Court verdicts in recent cases that government leaders need to be held accountable and policemen found guilty of torture and associated abuse of power should be removed seem to have had no effect.

One of the hopes in the New Year will be that the law written in the constitution itself regarding elections will enable a new government to be formed based on the people’s mandate. President Ranil Wickremesinghe has announced the presidential elections will be held this year to be followed by general elections and the postponed provincial and local government elections. The people’s movement, the Aragalaya, failed to achieve a change of government. The application of the rule of law and democracy may achieve what the people’s movement was unable to achieve. But there is a measure of uncertainty regarding these elections. The concern is that the constitution may be changed, the presidency may be abolished, to obviate the need for any elections this year.

But there is also a hope in the New Year, and one grounded in what is good rather than what is evil. The recent past has seen a move towards national reconciliation manifested in the Himalaya Declaration with leadership being provided by a small section of civil society together with another small section of the Tamil Diaspora in dialogue with Buddhist monks rooted in the country. Initiatives to end protracted conflict in which there are vested interests will invariably evoke suspicion and envy as the concern grows that some will benefit and others will be left out. The open and even vitriolic opposition to the Himalaya Declaration that even now exists is bound to come from both sides. But it must not derail the process of peace building.

Greater Hope 

The present time is opportune for a breakthrough to peace. The ongoing economic crisis has shown the people that they are not the enemies of one another, and other factors are at play. During the height of the protest movement, young people of whom many were university students shouted slogans that they had been deceived enough by politicians who roused ethnic divisions, but these young people wanted a new country in which all would be treated with equality and respect.

A similar message came from a conference organized by the Sri Lanka Council of Religions for Peace in which former president Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga was the keynote speaker. She remains a living embodiment of commitment to justice for all ethnic and religious communities; also her ability and willingness to forgive and not to show hatred or hostility or hold an entire community responsible for the suicide bombing that deprived her of sight in one eye is evidence that we in Sri Lanka do not have to look far for our own Nelson Mandelas.

At this event, the former president noted with acumen that the Sri Lankan people were not racist but were provoked by politicians. She said that in her time, despite the ongoing war, public opinion had turned favourable to a political solution based on inter-ethnic power sharing and devolution of power to the provincial level from 23 percent to 68 percent in a matter of two years due to leadership and mass education campaigns. With every crisis, as today, comes an opportunity. 2024 will be a pivotal moment for Sri Lanka to change its destiny with visionary and multi-partisan leadership that will promote justice and inclusive growth for all.

This year presents the best possibility of a breakthrough to peace, if not the signing of the political settlement and its incorporation in the constitution, at least to set the foundations in place with multi-partisan agreement. The country needs leaders who will bring internal peace and justice and not just the promise of the rainbow in the distance. The question to answer in the New Year is who will provide the leadership to make peace and reconciliation a reality and remove the one big obstacle (among many) to the country’s ascent to the steep, long delayed and necessary climb of self-sustaining development.

The post Hoping Against Hope In The New Year appeared first on Colombo Telegraph.