Multiple Choice Or A Binary Option?

By Vishwamithra –

“In any moment of decision, the best thing you can do is the right thing. The worst thing you can do is nothing.” ~ Theodore Roosevelt

They say, in less than seven moons we will have elections; an election to elect our next President. There will be many a sunset and many a sunrise before that time arrives. How is the electorate going to decide? Is it straining to protect the status quo or is it willing to challenge that status quo and usher in a new beginning? One would not know. Many surveys and polls have been conducted, as reports reveal. But all such surveys and polls do not seem to have any scientific foundation. Wandering around a thoroughfare and asking a select number of strangers as to which candidate they would vote for is no scientific poll by any a standard. In fact, such surveys should be at the receiving end of public scorn and mass ridicule. Extracting answers to one single question and portraying the outcome of those answers as a credible result of a poll is the most uneducated way of mirroring the people’s choice. Disseminating such ill-informed tests should be done away with. The results may expand some politicians’ ego, but it never helps to uplift their image. On the contrary, they contribute to an image of shortsighted and opportunistic character of those very politicians.

It should be our collective conclusion that we stay away from such farcical enterprises. However, one cannot disregard nor discard the palpable rise of the National People’s Power (NPP) as a mainstream political party and a valid and legitimate contender in any election that would take place within the next one and half years. In the mist of a mad rush on the part of all political parties, namely United National Party (UNP), Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), Sri Lanka Podu Jana Peramuna (SLPP) and National People’s Power (NPP), (Sri Lanka Freedom Party – SLFP– hardly deserves a mention), to galvanize the electorate towards their respective political message, the mainstream media outlets  have decided to grab the headlines as well as securing the unique platform to host debates etc. of the multiple contenders.

It is hardly imaginable for us to ignore those calls by the media. However, ever since the time that the social media began its dominance of information marketplace, the masses whose great majority is enjoying ownership of Smartphones have begun a slightly different journey. Their engagement with this unequaled possession of the Smartphone, the clarity and speed of information have become sharper and more telling. Those politicians who were utterly gripped by a possible narrative of their darker sides of profiles would cost them their elections, are being driven crazy after the advent of the social media platforms.

Whichever direction one looks, they are being overwhelmed by stories after stories of legitimately credible discoveries of warped and disgusting portions of their lifestyles and the way in which they could support such lifestyles. Nevertheless, the activities in the arena of the social media have multiplied exponentially and it is widely presumed that most of these stories do have some allegiance to truth. In addition to this compelling scenario of politicians being found wanting in moderate lifestyles and disciplined personal conduct, it was one of the significant conditions that caused the birth of Aragalaya-22. Also, Aragalaya-22 added a completely fresh and romanticist tinge in that its appeal to all segments of society and the absence of ethnic, caste, religious and class divisions amongst those who willingly took part in the Aragalaya-22 became more imminent.

In furtherance of their cause, Aragalakaruwos managed to marginalize the hackneyed politicians and their sloganeering; they created a fresh demand and appeal to the broad masses that cut across all traditional alliances of all political parties who held power to that date. By doing so, they drew a clear and sharp line between those who enjoyed the fruits of power and those who had not up to that time. They, the Aragalakaruwos, defined the status quo as those who had been engaged in politics in the last seventy six years and the ‘other’ as those who did not have the opportunity nor the privilege to be the ones who did not win elections to occupy the seats of power. The difference between the status quo and the ‘other’ was defined clearly.

Although the opposition and confrontation was towards the Rajapaksas, the country being declared bankrupt, while some members of the Rajapaksa family were seen riding in grand Lamborghini and Ferrari cars, drove home the truth that it was not only the then ruling cabal but all those who governed the country prior to the Rajapaksas were also placed in the same bucket. This compartmentalization of  all politicians, one group in the status quo and the ‘other’ in those who have not being tested and tried to date became quite elementary to understand.

This compartmentalization is the notion that both Ranil Wickremesinghe and Sajith Premadasa could not understand. Neither did they come to terms with it. At first, Ranil and Sajith may have surmised that it was only the Rajapaksas that were detested by the country. Having been elected to office by more than 55% of the voting population, both in the Presidential and Parliamentary Elections, the Rajapaksas were in a different universe. Gotabaya and his Cabinet were indulging in the usual plundering of the treasury with almost orgasmic pleasure. But when the collapse occurred, they too were taken aback; their dreamworld crashed within days and what began with a minor protest opposite Gotabaya’s private residence in Mirihana, developed into a massive campaign the strength of which even those who planned and participated in the demonstrations could not fathom.

The division between the status quo and the ‘other’ was made a demonstrably existent social dynamic when some politicos such as Sajith, Eran Wickremaratne and Rajitha Senaratne were summarily chased away from the Aragalaya ground. Ownership of Aragalaya-22 could not be taken away from the ‘other’ by some opportunistic politicians, partners of the status quo. Aragalaya-22 instilled a brand new desire in the minds of the masses for a total change. Aragalaya-22 asked for a total departure from all politicians, from the traditions of customary politics.

What followed Aragalaya-22 was a tremendous advantage  for the National People’s Power (NPP) and its leadership. A country that was used to treating all political parties as essential threads of our political fabric, converted itself, almost overnight, into a one that was willfully rejecting traditional leniency and loyalties to conventional political parties.

Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), forerunner of the NPP, which was directly identified with negation of the status quo realized that they had a rare opportunity to go before the people with the only party that could be directly related to the change that was coming. Aragalaya-22 facilitated that process and the rest, as they say, is recent history. The people came to accept the NPP as the ‘other’ and the rest, UNP, SLFP, SLPP and SJB as the nuts and bolts of the status quo.

Traditional thinkers and statisticians might consider the notion that a multiple choice before the electorate would favor the NPP in any elections. Theoretically speaking that should be so. If the opposition is divided amongst more than one party, such divisions should naturally favor the ‘other’. But the very fact that all those parties and individual leaders could be identified with the past and therefore the status quo in addition to the fact that Ranil Wickremesinghe has already been cast as a perennial loser, whoever contests as an opponent to the NPP offers a binary option as against a multiple choice for the people.

In other words, Ranil Wickremesinghe alone is the joker in the pack. Although he may be hallucinating that he could somehow or the other manage to present himself to the country as a common candidate, even in the unlikeliest event of Sajith joining him in a coalition, a binary option between Ranil and Anura Kumara Dissanayake offers a much more lucid and transparent choice. Most of our punditry and writers may indulge in a premature celebration that, provided a binary choice is thrown to the people, it would deliver Ranil to Presidency. They have seriously underestimated the people’s disgust and rejection of Ranil Wickremesinghe. A party leader who could not secure a single seat in parliamentary elections surely cannot be a serious contender for a contest between the status quo and the ‘other’.

At the same time most men tend to overestimate Ranil’s ability as a clever strategist and he could turn the tide in an election campaign overnight. Ranil may be a crafty trickster, but he is no strategist. His obsession with himself is massive and beyond the pale. And when such a psyche is entangled in a lifesaving venture, there is nothing he could not do. That is a dangerous trait for a nation’s leader. His favors are handed out to his personal friends who could directly relate to him and his liking. A man who could not see beyond his personal desires and ambitions is as destructive and dicey as those corrupt cohorts who surrounded the Rajapaksas. A binary option whether it’s between AKD and Ranil or AKD and Sajith is a much more accomplishable victory than one that could be achieved by way of a multiple choice.

*The writer can be contacted at vishwamithra1984@gmail.com                

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