Of President, Prime Minister And Future Elections

by  N.Sathiya Moorthy

In the normal course that should be around the time the current government’s present term should end. If so, does it require an astrological prediction to confirm it? Or, does it mean that the current alliance between President Maithriapala Sirisena-led SLFP and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s UNP would not survive beyond it?

Either way, the very fact that the Ekanayake prediction covers the current five-year term of the duo, almost overlapping, is all that is expected of them just now. If the alliance continues beyond it, then it would be a bonus for the two parties, as things stand now.

It would also mean that the two parties/leaders could still indulge in shadow-boxing of some kind in the next round of parliamentary polls, without much resistance from third parties. The question is if it would remain so – and what would happen to President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who is still fretting and fuming from the sidelines, and not always for wrong reasons.

If astrological predictions were to prove right, then Rajapaksa’s own Sumanadasa Abeyagunawardena should not and would not have got it wrong, as he did in January 2015. Media reports at the time had it that Rajapaksa had advanced the presidential polls by more than a year, owing to astrological predictions.

Political premonition would have had it that anti-incumbency would have set in if Rajapaksa were to continue in office for that overlapping period. Yet, the Rajapaksa camp did get their political instincts just right as much for Elections-2015 as for the two preceding presidential polls that he had won – and their astrologer got it all wrong, and also reportedly disowned the findings, post facto.

If Rajapaksa advancing the poll owed to astrological predictions, his conceding the election even at the wee hours of the counting day when most votes from the across the country had not even been counted is a reflection on their political instinct. Why then did they count on astrology and not their political instinct and experience is anybody’s guess.

From almost the beginning or even earlier, the Rajapaksas were clear that they needed 25-35 per cent vote-share from the North and the East, to win. When Mahinda R did not get it when counting in the two Provinces got over, he readily conceded defeat, whatever be other attendant compulsions, rumours and the rest.

 

No second term?

As coincidence would have it, SLFP Minister Dilan Perera has flagged, almost out of nowhere, the issue of a future candidate for the presidential poll that is not due for a long time to come. In context, he has referred to Sirisena’s post-election declaration that he would not seek a second term.

Dilan P readily points out that there was no bar on Sirisena contesting a second term under the 19th Amendment of the Constitution (or, the restored 17-A, so to say). It is another matter what shape the specific provision would undergo before the Constituent Assembly, which is expected to finish its work long before Sirisena’s term ends.

Dilan has pointed out that under the existing provision, two leading lights of the SLFP in former Presidents Rajapaksa and Chandrika Bandaranaike-Kumaratunga, CBK, could not contest for a third term. According to him, if Sirisena sticks to his promise, PM Ranil could contest the presidential polls (on the UNP ticket, obviously).

Thus, Dilan seems to want the SLFP to be ready with a (popular) party candidate for the presidential polls next time. Rather, he possibly wants the party to make the chosen one (or, two or three) to be made popular, and worthy of giving Ranil W a tough contest and also winning it.

 

Unsaid alternative

In all this, there is the ‘unmentioned alternative’, not to President Sirisena but to PM Ranil, from within – and for that very post, and not for the presidency. The way the UNP handled the last presidential polls first, and the subsequent parliamentary elections, it was amply clear that intra-party deals had been stuck.

Those deals, if any, were seemingly honoured, and continued to be so – or, so it seems. If so, it could flow that the next round of national elections would well see Ranil W running for the presidency, and followed by parliamentary elections. The UNP could then throw up a new prime ministerial nominee – or, two, as the case may be.

It also remains to be seen what shape the new Constitution takes, and if it would recommend simultaneous elections to the presidency and parliament. If so much of the current speculation could end, and new rounds of speculation could commence – even as the Constituent Assembly begin taking a closer look at the new statute and progresses on its course.

It would then mean that the SLFP could be forced to take a decision or two. First, it would be on the continuance of the current alliance with the UNP leader of the ruling coalition. Two, if the decision is to go it alone, then the SLFP would have to decide on what to do with itself and where from there.

 

SLFP anxieties

Some of the SLFP anxieties – and especially of the Sirisena followers just now – might be mitigated if and when the Constitution-makers decide that the nation would have direct elections to Parliament and indirect polls for the Presidency. If so, the two parties would have to decide on a future presidential candidate only after the conclusion of the next round of parliamentary polls.

Either way, if Sirisena is not in the fray then for the presidency, the SLFP may have to begin identifying prospective candidates for the two posts and start promoting them. If not, it would have to decide on at least one candidate, depending on which of the two high offices that he would want to run for – and also has the party’s whole-hearted support. The question for the SLFP could still remain as to who would get the party the votes that it would require. In the past, CBK first and Rajapaksa later on were the mascot-carriers of the party. Both did win a series of elections for the party, and at all levels, including the provincial councils and local government polls.

If CBK and Rajapaksa could not contest the presidency even under the new Constitution could either or both be eligible to contest the parliamentary polls and as the prime ministerial nominee of the SLFP? There are inherent issues in the party accepting either or both of them together, and each of them accepting the other, and getting accepted specifically for a high elected office, by incumbent Sirisena.

 

Cats-on-the-wall

It is anybody’s guess if the likes of Dilan Perera have any answers or solutions to what stares the SLFP on the face – just now and well into the future. Definitely, he has flagged the issues and attendant concerns. It is for the party in general, and the present party leadership of President Sirisena to take the lead and the initiative.

Therein is the hitch of one kind or the other, or both. If Sirisena starts thinking about the future of the SLFP minus the present-day UNP ally, with or without others in the GNU, he will be leading the party into a split with the present-day alliance partner(s) before long. He would then have to prepare the party for it, and more so SLFP parliamentarians, many of whom are cats-on-the-wall just now.

It is not unlikely that some, if not many of these SLFP members of Parliament, would be happy to get re-nomination in their respective electorates, be it under the SLFP or the UNP flag. It could well be an internal problem for the UNP leadership to handle, if there were to be a showdown with the SLFP and some of the latter’s MPs decide to make their choice otherwise.If they were to stick on with the party, and would be willing to face a future election under the SLFP banner, they would still want a face to win them their seats. Just now, it continues to be that of Mahinda R, and none else, jointly or severally. This year’s competing May Day rally of the Rajapaksa camp is proof enough, or so it would seem.

The question would still remain if the Rajapaksa face would continue to sell in future elections to the nation’s Parliament and/or the presidency, whoever the SLFP candidate(s). In nation and the government of the day cannot continue to stall the Provincial Council polls. Like the parliamentary polls last year, it would be a testing-ground, not only between the UNP and the SLFP, but also within the SLFP to a great extent – and also within the UNP, to a greater or lesser extent.

(The writer is Director, Chennai Chapter of the Observer Research Foundation, the multi-disciplinary Indian public-policy think-tank, headquartered in New Delhi. email: sathiyam54@gmail.com)