Can ‘Brand Obama’ win in November?
In my experience of brand marketing, I have realised that the most challenging is the marketing of a political candidate for high office given the complexity of variables involved and the swing votes that come to play at the last moment. The other is the dynamism that goes into the business of politics where even at the last minute it’s very hard to read a voter’s mind.
Indignity
Some can argue that it is an ultimate indignity to the democratic process to market a candidate to high office given that ‘Brand Obama’ is to unleash a marketing campaign to the tune of 1.5 billion dollars over a four-month burst.
But, in my view, all that marketing does is give a consumer the option of making a more informed decision and in this respect the techniques of marketing being used to market a brand like Obama will be one of the most interesting challenges for a marketer.
Obama
If we take Obama as a brand, way back in 2008 the promise ‘hope and change’ was faced with a tsunami due to the global economic down turn that sure dented the ‘Obama Promise’ with the US at the epicentre of the world. Sometimes I wonder how Obama as a brand has a 66.2% chance of winning a second term in November 2012.
But in my view, the race is really closer than what statistics show. Mitt Romney yet has a decent chance if he gets his act together in the next four months, provided that he understands the insights of the Obama campaign. As at now, Romney is behind in the national polls and especially in the swing states.
In the Electoral College, ‘Brand Obama’ is at a commanding rating of 294 votes where his target is 270. However, the deciding factor in the next four months are the markets of Virginia, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada and how he can unleash the 1.5 billion dollar campaign to make people vote for him. The key insight coming out now from research agencies is that Obama as a brand is simply a lot more likeable than the Romney package.
Who will win?
One of the organisations that I respect for using analytical models for predicting the outcome of the past US elections is a company called Moody. It was developed by a Yale economist called Ray Fair in 1978. The underlining thesis in his work is that the key attribute influencing a voter in the US are the changes in economic conditions especially in the months closer to the elections.
The 2008 version of the model proved accurate in predicting not only the election results that year but also the number of electoral votes received by the winner – Obama. However, this year attributes like the recession and spiralling unemployment rates will play a strong role in the forecast.
As per the organisation’s analysis, Virginia, Ohio and Florida will be the key swing states to deciding the outcome. Assuming that the current course of action continues, the prediction is that ‘Brand Obama’ will win in November, though not assured, the reason being that the mentioned key swing states can turn the tables in the last days in the run up to the elections, just like what happened in 2004.
As at now even if the economic conditions improve in many parts of the country, it will remain challenging given the recent developments in Europe. Even after factoring these issues on the attributes that a typical voter will take into account the Moody’s Analytical model forecasts that ‘Brand Obama’ will receive 303 Electoral College Votes, which is 33 above the 270 required for one to be in the hot seat of the world.
However, a point to note is that if the economy does not turn around as estimated or it takes a U-turn, then the chances of the election becoming very close will be stronger. This means that time will tell us how entrenchedly competitive the November elections will be. From a strictly marketing point of view, it will be a very interesting development to monitor and understand how consumer behaviour changes to stimuli.
The model also throws out the information that even if Brand Obama loses the key three swing states, there is yet a possibility that ‘Brand Obama’ can secure 272 Electoral College votes and secure a win for the brand for another four-year term. But we must note that any model has its limitations and margins of error.
Even though the Moody’s model has a good track record, the fact of the matter is that it does not factor in aspects like the impact of the war in Syria or any natural disaster like the raging fires and shootings that has shocked the US like the one in Colorado over the weekend. The model also does not take into account the impact on a voter of aspects like charisma, which are the personal qualities of Barack Obama.
Obama brand strategy
Another study done recently estimates that ‘Brand Obama’ will secure 294 votes, but yet outside the margin of error. However, the 1.5 billion dollar marketing campaign can sure move voters in the next four months.
If one zeroes down to the Obama brand campaign, as it is now the competitive stance is cut throat technicality rather than focusing on the brand values of ‘Obama’ which is on hope and change. This is required I guess especially when it comes to the swing states that now include Colorado and Nevada.
The message is clearly making the point on how scary it would be for a Republican to be the president of the country based on the uncertainty that is gripping the United States. The aspects highlighted in the campaign are social security, medi-care, education programmes, financial aid to students, welfare systems, taxes and the healthcare system. Whilst this comparative campaign is cutting edge, I believe it’s important to drive a strong brand building campaign on ‘Hope and Change,’ given that if not ‘Brand Obama’ is not building on its brand strengths.
Competitor strategy
The competitive campaign is also in hard-hitting mode by focusing on hard facts like Obama’s spotty political record, the 9.1% unemployment rate, the downgrade of the credit system and the overall decline in the economy that questions the promise made in 2008, ‘Say Yes to Change’.
I guess when one looks back at Moody’s analytical model, it mirrors the candidates’ strategies and the predicted outcome as at now. But, once again, the next four months are key, given that the US economy is faced with so much of uncertainty. From a strictly marketing point of view, I guess every single communication tool will have to be used woo the US voter.
Traction
The last time around we can remember the traction that ‘Brand Obama’ got with the powerful campaign ‘Hope and Change,’ which really uplifted the spirit of America that led to the people voting for the brand. One tool that really worked last time around was the use of social media for ‘Brand Obama’. The social networking accounts and websites garnered a lot of support that increased the brand engagement significantly, which was of personal nature.
I feel this time around the significance of the online campaign will be stronger. The launch video on YouTube and linkage to Facebook sure linked the US voter but how this relationship can be maintained is the challenge now.
The ability for a group of voters to get together and support ‘Brand Obama’ like the ‘Florida Women for Obama’ is a good idea that localises support and can get a new wave rolling, but once again the issue is sustaining this effort for four months when a typical consumer is severely under pressure on the purse.
I personally like the new look website of ‘Brand Obama,’ which is essentially on garnering the power of people – a good idea in a depressed economy.
Implication for marketing
In a world where the best practice does not hold ground and hence all are asking what the next best practice is, where companies are running experiments on what will work rather than just solving problems, it will be interesting to watch from a marketing perspective the tools that will work in the next four months on ‘Brand Obama’ and the competitive brand of Mitt Romney. This will also determine what strategies can be pursued by brand marketers.
(The author can be contacted on rohantha.athukorala1@gmail.com. The thoughts expressed are strictly his personal views and not the views of the organisations he serves in Sri Lanka or globally.)
