TTC board gives tepid approval to city’s Scarborough subway plan

In a narrow 6-4 vote, the TTC board has adopted the findings of a TTC report that says the three-stop subway approved by city council is the best option for replacing the aging Scarborough RT.

The report says the province’s plan for a shorter subway that would run above ground only as far as the Scarborough City Centre has some serious drawbacks, including exposure to the weather and the need to shut down the SRT during construction.

The board’s tepid endorsement of the report showed just how complex Toronto’s politically charged transit file has become.

Some TTC board members said they wouldn’t vote to endorse the plan because the TTC’s preliminary analysis of the two routes didn’t give them enough information.

Councillor John Parker, who continues to support an LRT to replace the SRT, said he expects council will, nevertheless, confirm its preference for the underground subway when it meets next month.

Even TTC CEO Andy Byford, when pressed by a reporter, acknowledged that a downtown relief line should be the city’s priority, to take some of the pressure off the overcrowded Yonge subway.

But, “It’s not as simple as an either/or,” he said.

“If I had to pick one I would choose the downtown relief line. But I don’t think it’s a perfect choice because the timings aren’t exactly the same and because you’ve still got to replace the SRT,” Byford said.

“The need for a downtown relief line … becomes more pressing if you add a subway extension, because if that extension attracts more people onto the subway they’re going to go all the way along to Yonge and Bloor and put even more pressure on the southbound Yonge line in the morning peak,” he said.

The likelihood of getting the unfunded relief line built before the Scarborough extension seems remote. It is among a long list of projects competing for Metrolinx’s next round of expansion plans, if the province raises more money for transit.

It appears likely that an extension of the Danforth line north of Kennedy would be sending new riders toward the congested Yonge subway before the relief line is even started.

That wouldn’t mean an immediate crisis, said Byford, because a new signaling system will add capacity to Yonge in the meantime. But by 2031, the Yonge line would again be hitting capacity, he said.

The Scarborough subway, on the other hand, now has money. The province has committed $1.48 billion and on Monday, the federal government offered $660 million toward the project, estimated to cost about $3 billion.

The province maintains it can get an above-ground subway to the Scarborough centre for $1.48 billion, but the TTC says the plan has some serious disadvantages.

If the city sticks with its own longer subway to Sheppard, it will also be on the hook for the balance of the cost — likely to be paid with development charges and a property tax hike that would be phased in over four years but stay on the books for decades.

The prospect of approving a tax hike a year before an election may have some councillors reconsidering their July decision to abandon the original plan for a Scarborough LRT.

Councillor Josh Matlow calls it the “evidence-based” plan that makes the most sense because it will meet the demand in Scarborough for the long term.

The seven-stop LRT plan is projected to attract 8,000 riders an hour in the peak direction by 2031. The three-stop subway would attract between 9,500 and 14,000 people an hour.

At Wednesday’s TTC meeting, Matlow stormed out of the room after refusing to comply with a request by TTC chair Karen Stintz. She asked him to retract a suggestion to Scarborough Councillor Glenn De Baeremaeker that subway supporters were using transit to buy votes.

The TTC board also agreed Wednesday to request a meeting with the Metrolinx board after the October council meeting, where the city manager will present a joint TTC report on the subway plans and councillors will have to decide if they want to hike taxes, go for the shorter provincially preferred route or stick with their signed provincial agreement for an LRT.