Change may not come quickly in Cuba, Obama cautions

WASHINGTON—Barack Obama expects to visit Cuba before he dies. But neither he nor the elderly Castro brothers are likely to cross the 150-kilometre divide in the final two years of his presidency.

Two days after the announcement of a diplomatic rapprochement to end America’s half-century blockade of Cuba, Obama moved to manage expectations Friday, cautioning that the last glaring vestige of Cold War-era politics won’t melt overnight.

“It would be unrealistic for me to map out exactly where Cuba will be. But change is going to come to Cuba,” Obama said at his end-of-year news conference. “It has to.”

In an era in which subsidies from Russia and Venezuela are drying up, Cuba is already beginning to transform, he said. “And the more the Cuban people see what’s possible, the more interested they are going to be in change.

“It could happen fast. It could happen slower than I would like,” said Obama. “It’s going to happen and this change in (U.S.) policy is going to advance that.”

Obama’s remarks came amid continuing political fallout from the historic Cuba pivot, which was settled after a series of at least seven secret meetings in Toronto and Ottawa since the summer of 2013.

For generations, Cuba was the ultimate wedge issue in the crucial political swing state of Florida, home to nearly two million Americans of Cuban ancestry. But as the news of rapprochement settles in, the wedge is breaking apart, with the lion’s share of voters now leaning toward Obama’s vision of ending the embargo.

The Cuba rapprochement has raised the profiles of at least three serious Republican aspirants to replace Obama in 2016, with Sen. Marco Rubio and former Florida governor Jeb Bush urging Congress to hold firm against Obama and maintain Cuba’s isolation until the repressive Castro regime — former president Fidel Castro and his replacement, brother Raul — is unseated.

But Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, who is expected to contend for the GOP presidential nomination in 2016, sharply broke ranks with the traditional Republican line on Cuba. The hawkish Rubio dismissed Paul’s Cuba critique Thursday, telling Fox News, “he has no idea what he’s talking about.” Rand Paul returned fire Friday on Twitter in a series of posts that appeared to embrace Obama’s position in full.

“Senator @marcorubio is acting like an isolationist who wants to retreat to our borders and perhaps build a moat. I reject this isolationism,” Paul began. He followed with a query, noting, “The United States trades and engages with other communist nations, such as China and Vietnam. So @marcorubio why not Cuba?”

Paul’s Twitter tirade ended with a message asking Rubio to address “the majority of Cuban-Americans who now support normalizing relations between our countries,” citing a National Public Radio report on Florida’s softening stance on Cuba.

Rapidly shifting attitudes among Cuban-American voters are confirmed by the most recent survey from the widely cited Cuban Research Institute (CRI) at Florida International University, which shows sharp generational divides.

While older Cuban exiles tend to remain staunchly in favour of an embargo, their U.S.-born children do not. The CRI’s data also shows divisions among older and newer arrivals from Cuba, with more recent immigrants significantly more likely to support a new policy of dialogue, engagement and unrestricted travel.

The shifting attitudes are strongest among younger Cuban-Americans, with as many as 88 per cent of millennials in favour of renewed diplomatic relations. Those 65 and older, meanwhile, are 60-40 in favour of maintaining the embargo.

“The increase in the opposition to the embargo continues a trend fuelled not only by an ideological shift among exiles frustrated with the inability of the embargo to bring about the desired changes on the island,” wrote CRI academics Guillermo Grenier and Hugh Gladwin, summarizing the changes.

“It is also the result of the profound shift in the demographic composition of the Cuban origin population in the Miami area. More than a third of all Cuban-Americans living in Miami today have arrived since 1995. In our survey, these respondents are most likely to oppose a continuation of the embargo.”

Obama’s Cuba shift has also been interpreted as a political gift to Hillary Clinton, who remains far and away the Democratic favourite to replace him in 2016. Clinton’s memoir of her time as secretary of state, Hard Choices, put her on record as favouring an end to the embargo. As of today, White House policy appears to have caught up to the woman who wants to live there next.